{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa621307-fa10-49b7-8abf-d5cc5855702d", "symbol": "BCDA", "name": "Biocardia\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.275, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.926, "architecture_energy": 45.414, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.423, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.38, "rotation_up": 16.97, "upward_expansion": 10.76, "deceleration": 38.52, "rotation_down": 57.97, "downward_expansion": 81.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.887, 0.941149, 0.983306, 1.03271 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.9783, "trend_reference": 1.102853, "distance_from_trend": -0.112937, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.396836, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.711997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.593399, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.21736, "excess_performance": -0.404814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112937, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.711997, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094029, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335934, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086039, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21736, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.617084, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2183477, "relative_activity": 0.2194, "balance": 8.617084, "dry_up": 0.153025, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.257688, "annualized_volatility": 0.723703, "from_high_reference": -0.572795, "from_low_reference": 0.3044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.102853, "fair_value_reference": 3.396836, "structural_low": 0.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.056, "positive_rate": 0.395349, "directional_follow_through": 0.604651, "median_excess_return": -0.059502, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.850834, "worst_return": -0.513772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.156627, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.283223, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.365517, "worst_return": -0.587884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.457435, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.504478, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.668966, "worst_return": -0.644286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 0.983707, 0.991375, 1.034789, 1.080603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8501, "volume": 1078836, "typical_volume": 9838097.3, "trend": 1.131937, "fair_value": 3.56006, "relative_strength": -41.473594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.495512, "energy": 38.011765, "activity_lines": [ 0.92654, 0.965702, 1.012641, 1.061517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8242, "volume": 898554, "typical_volume": 9864587.55, "trend": 1.117077, "fair_value": 3.47594, "relative_strength": -42.172426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.456898, "energy": 54.648631, "activity_lines": [ 0.86856, 0.938227, 0.989598, 1.041663 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9783, "volume": 2183477, "typical_volume": 9952042.15, "trend": 1.102853, "fair_value": 3.396836, "relative_strength": -33.593399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.925641, "energy": 45.413554, "activity_lines": [ 0.887, 0.941149, 0.983306, 1.03271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }