{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa640cc9-e043-4b1b-9a4e-a0deeac05747", "symbol": "ZAP", "name": "GLOBAL X U.S. ELECTRIFICATION ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.747, "architecture_energy": 13.852, "architecture_maturity": 11.276, "architecture_confidence": 70.414, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.19, "rotation_up": 18.19, "upward_expansion": 43.27, "deceleration": 79.16, "rotation_down": 40.28, "downward_expansion": 34.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.906, 33.284395, 33.460994, 33.267854 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.6, "trend_reference": 32.826933, "distance_from_trend": -0.006913, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.822183, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.713731, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056746, "excess_performance": -0.130707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006913, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041267, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.131073, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068979, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056746, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.084245, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 632110, "relative_activity": 1.161507, "balance": 1.084245, "dry_up": 0.80955, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038092, "annualized_volatility": 0.171351, "from_high_reference": -0.074284, "from_low_reference": 0.207961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.826933, "fair_value_reference": 28.822183, "structural_low": 30.739837, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"trend": 32.480308, "fair_value": 28.675635, "relative_strength": -3.690479, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.514096, "energy": 24.154066, "activity_lines": [ 33.707131, 33.706693, 33.589134, 33.216282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.56, "volume": 381893, "typical_volume": 562935.05, "trend": 32.625741, "fair_value": 28.733782, "relative_strength": -0.970493, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.773309, "energy": 15.007892, "activity_lines": [ 33.600247, 33.685321, 33.615847, 33.28594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.47, "volume": 358151, "typical_volume": 557471.2, "trend": 32.724586, "fair_value": 28.777738, "relative_strength": -4.580901, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.197533, "energy": 8.890837, "activity_lines": [ 33.166128, 33.45704, 33.532151, 33.275892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.6, "volume": 632110, "typical_volume": 544215.3, "trend": 32.826933, "fair_value": 28.822183, "relative_strength": -8.713731, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.746967, "energy": 13.851721, "activity_lines": [ 32.906, 33.284395, 33.460994, 33.267854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }