{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa6a9324-535c-4212-83b0-0e69feee5f73", "symbol": "LUNR", "name": "Intuitive Machines Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.751, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.759, "architecture_energy": 54.704, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.51, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.55, "rotation_up": 17.78, "upward_expansion": 18.87, "deceleration": 46.2, "rotation_down": 69.03, "downward_expansion": 60.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.22, 16.329273, 21.798857, 22.211398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.4, "trend_reference": 21.987333, "distance_from_trend": -0.254116, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.060801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.482714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.539182, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.063927, "excess_performance": -0.251381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.254116, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104614, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.482714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.474695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.852739, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.659459, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56532040, "relative_activity": 0.841867, "balance": 0.659459, "dry_up": 0.713028, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.399174, "annualized_volatility": 1.089446, "from_high_reference": -0.649198, "from_low_reference": 1.107969 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.987333, "fair_value_reference": 11.060801, "structural_low": 11.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.106735, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.107224, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.321678, "worst_return": -0.059382, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.929058, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.840856, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": 0.358116, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.47836, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.299783, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.70765, "worst_return": 0.249071, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.781421, 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-18.277826, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.605672, "energy": 38.656434, "activity_lines": [ 19.380667, 24.532, 25.815048, 24.392946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.52, "volume": 52151016, "typical_volume": 67812524.85, "trend": 22.321667, "fair_value": 10.952724, "relative_strength": -28.433536, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.854697, "energy": 57.356035, "activity_lines": [ 16.888667, 21.912182, 24.756762, 23.822043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.92, "volume": 40530957, "typical_volume": 67400767.75, "trend": 22.244, "fair_value": 10.980609, "relative_strength": -30.310859, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.276921, "energy": 63.606108, "activity_lines": [ 15.07, 19.464182, 23.655429, 23.215484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.34, "volume": 42307619, "typical_volume": 67080761.6, "trend": 22.059333, "fair_value": 11.010096, "relative_strength": -33.742419, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.357664, "energy": 65.806504, "activity_lines": [ 13.72, 17.292, 22.521286, 22.576516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.4, "volume": 56532040, "typical_volume": 67150797.4, "trend": 21.987333, "fair_value": 11.060801, "relative_strength": -16.539182, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.759098, "energy": 54.703886, "activity_lines": [ 14.22, 16.329273, 21.798857, 22.211398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }