{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa6fd927-aa5a-4bf6-98f9-a16df5c69bed", "symbol": "603878", "name": "Jiangsu Wujin Stainless Steel Pipe Group CO.,LTD.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.458, "architecture_energy": 74.951, "architecture_maturity": 59.867, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 22.07, "upward_expansion": 16.17, "deceleration": 42.81, "rotation_down": 63.23, "downward_expansion": 89.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.741333, 4.984819, 5.803892, 6.441237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.94, "trend_reference": 7.239626, "distance_from_trend": -0.317644, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.816333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.27527, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.258102, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.439274, "excess_performance": -0.39607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.317644, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18074, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.27527, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.49201, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.372581, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3703, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.439274, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.200369, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65611529, "relative_activity": 1.052954, "balance": 0.200369, "dry_up": 1.186437, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116583, "annualized_volatility": 0.46856, "from_high_reference": -0.608247, "from_low_reference": 0.148837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.239626, "fair_value_reference": 6.816333, "structural_low": 4.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.013233, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.025052, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.323881, "worst_return": -0.244444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01448, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008864, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.278328, "worst_return": -0.339623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082961, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002825, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.154712, "worst_return": -0.316176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.540601, "energy": 92.842345, "activity_lines": [ 5.028, 5.546621, 6.412446, 6.995982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.41, "volume": 88977406, "typical_volume": 64839172.55, "trend": 7.55696, "fair_value": 6.850636, "relative_strength": -42.53912, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.768687, "energy": 92.799534, "activity_lines": [ 4.750667, 5.252408, 6.15969, 6.78063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.74, "volume": 69578792, "typical_volume": 62534920.75, "trend": 7.383626, "fair_value": 6.83155, "relative_strength": -38.311405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.091675, "energy": 82.897064, "activity_lines": [ 4.694, 5.078264, 5.962268, 6.598891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.94, "volume": 65611529, "typical_volume": 62311843.85, "trend": 7.239626, "fair_value": 6.816333, "relative_strength": -37.258102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.458325, "energy": 74.95084, "activity_lines": [ 4.741333, 4.984819, 5.803892, 6.441237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }