{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa74b163-42e0-4641-bea4-36923edec846", "symbol": "STI", "name": "Stonehenge Inter Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.106, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.819, "architecture_energy": 21.017, "architecture_maturity": 18.418, "architecture_confidence": 77.394, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.77, "rotation_up": 40.56, "upward_expansion": 41.43, "deceleration": 35.67, "rotation_down": 22.84, "downward_expansion": 15.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.724, 1.717636, 1.707286, 1.706161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.72, "trend_reference": 1.711062, "distance_from_trend": 0.005224, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.626474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.34513, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.56143, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011765, "excess_performance": -0.18056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005224, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035676, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.34513, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096243, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195614, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110773, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011765, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.281633, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132900, "relative_activity": 0.945167, "balance": 3.281633, "dry_up": 3.01401, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038462, "annualized_volatility": 0.169988, "from_high_reference": -0.247693, "from_low_reference": 0.131579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.711062, "fair_value_reference": 2.626474, "structural_low": 1.52, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.0125, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.030378, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.044303, "worst_return": -0.075472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.046819, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032725, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.161905, "worst_return": -0.136793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.099448, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.04815, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.630953, "worst_return": -0.176721, "sufficient": true }, 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-04-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022774, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.204255, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033149, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.7, "volume": 1167400, "typical_volume": 133025.0, "trend": 1.725302, "fair_value": 2.665116, "relative_strength": -23.535543, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.726662, "energy": 11.085529, "activity_lines": [ 1.702, 1.705273, 1.698714, 1.704291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.72, "volume": 266800, "typical_volume": 140340.0, "trend": 1.719893, "fair_value": 2.652292, "relative_strength": -22.223575, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.428557, "energy": 8.367566, "activity_lines": [ 1.706667, 1.708545, 1.700667, 1.703949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.75, "volume": 128100, "typical_volume": 141350.0, "trend": 1.715813, "fair_value": 2.639419, "relative_strength": -19.331096, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.883145, "energy": 14.862655, "activity_lines": [ 1.722, 1.716545, 1.705476, 1.705891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.72, "volume": 132900, "typical_volume": 140610.0, "trend": 1.711062, "fair_value": 2.626474, "relative_strength": -19.56143, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.818976, "energy": 21.016581, "activity_lines": [ 1.724, 1.717636, 1.707286, 1.706161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }