{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa7d429d-3ee4-4831-80ea-a62d6165f7ef", "symbol": "NVQ", "name": "NoviqTech Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.709, "architecture_energy": 26.576, "architecture_maturity": 56.419, "architecture_confidence": 94.531, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.49, "rotation_up": 25.96, "upward_expansion": 58.74, "deceleration": 95.44, "rotation_down": 28.52, "downward_expansion": 8.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.039, 0.038982, 0.038671, 0.035568 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.039, "trend_reference": 0.0319, "distance_from_trend": 0.222571, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.030401, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282868, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 26.231367, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.625, "excess_performance": 0.561294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.222571, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212928, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282868, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03984, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.262314, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021551, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.625, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.33438, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.33438, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128205, "annualized_volatility": 1.245515, "from_high_reference": -0.338983, "from_low_reference": 1.4375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0319, "fair_value_reference": 0.030401, "structural_low": 0.016, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.05329, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.424242, "worst_return": -0.314286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.121875, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.150177, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 3.285714, "worst_return": -0.625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.375, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.268385, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.571429, "worst_return": -0.525, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.114732, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.159557, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114286, "worst_return": -0.34375, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075269, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.26087, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.050642, "energy": 23.364002, "activity_lines": [ 0.039, 0.040055, 0.03709, 0.033946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.039, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8489400.85, "trend": 0.0306, "fair_value": 0.029952, "relative_strength": 32.840483, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.262397, "energy": 24.582481, "activity_lines": [ 0.039, 0.0396, 0.03769, 0.034525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.039, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8023355.65, "trend": 0.031233, "fair_value": 0.030176, "relative_strength": 29.84592, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.565129, "energy": 24.099142, "activity_lines": [ 0.039, 0.039127, 0.038224, 0.035067 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.039, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7942612.65, "trend": 0.0319, "fair_value": 0.030401, "relative_strength": 26.231367, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.70867, "energy": 26.575645, "activity_lines": [ 0.039, 0.038982, 0.038671, 0.035568 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }