{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa7f1e4c-bb0e-46b8-b72d-dd78bc7f0014", "symbol": "FWRD", "name": "Forward Air Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 17.584, "architecture_energy": 23.914, "architecture_maturity": 27.786, "architecture_confidence": 55.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.7, "rotation_up": 41.89, "upward_expansion": 31.6, "deceleration": 49.39, "rotation_down": 14.17, "downward_expansion": 42.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.972, 14.965273, 14.303524, 15.555097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.35, "trend_reference": 18.214333, "distance_from_trend": 0.06235, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.918035, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.374152, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.017437, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.352626, "excess_performance": -0.54008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06235, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15223, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.374152, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.368929, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.445257, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.352626, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.886146, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4497688, "relative_activity": 0.827058, "balance": 1.886146, "dry_up": 0.732912, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124753, "annualized_volatility": 1.440973, "from_high_reference": -0.395312, "from_low_reference": 1.463399 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.214333, "fair_value_reference": 30.918035, "structural_low": 7.855, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.026707, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.007748, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.27674, "worst_return": -0.357741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.001573, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.052998, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.418846, "worst_return": -0.493639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025478, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047806, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288846, "worst_return": -0.476639, 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"fair_value": 33.223537, "relative_strength": -49.079103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.888189, "energy": 26.068823, "activity_lines": [ 13.725333, 12.673455, 14.128714, 16.435957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.75, "volume": 2584568, "typical_volume": 5490749.65, "trend": 19.183, "fair_value": 32.560729, "relative_strength": -44.570632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.827805, "energy": 24.305465, "activity_lines": [ 13.732, 13.045818, 13.937, 16.061226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.25, "volume": 5639040, "typical_volume": 5607292.05, "trend": 18.840667, "fair_value": 31.900092, "relative_strength": -36.338609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.191656, "energy": 19.336285, "activity_lines": [ 14.210667, 13.620364, 13.943095, 15.807484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.05, "volume": 3221537, "typical_volume": 5435296.85, "trend": 18.471333, "fair_value": 31.288075, "relative_strength": -40.609195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.228652, "energy": 16.221805, "activity_lines": [ 14.180667, 13.858727, 13.866762, 15.498409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.35, "volume": 4497688, "typical_volume": 5438180.3, "trend": 18.214333, "fair_value": 30.918035, "relative_strength": -21.017437, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 17.58423, "energy": 23.91449, "activity_lines": [ 15.972, 14.965273, 14.303524, 15.555097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }