{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa816edc-c113-45c2-bd06-d682f37783e9", "symbol": "300405", "name": "Liaoning Kelong Fine Chemical,Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.375, "architecture_energy": 52.39, "architecture_maturity": 33.378, "architecture_confidence": 91.206, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 18.99, "upward_expansion": 7.95, "deceleration": 56.57, "rotation_down": 60.49, "downward_expansion": 81.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.092, 5.180182, 5.66419, 5.942774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.47, "trend_reference": 6.276, "distance_from_trend": -0.128426, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.510064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.007271, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.770638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.187221, "excess_performance": -0.194621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128426, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.007271, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167706, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090717, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187221, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.496451, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52478481, "relative_activity": 1.275276, "balance": 0.496451, "dry_up": 1.230661, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106736, "annualized_volatility": 0.480211, "from_high_reference": -0.372706, "from_low_reference": 0.293144 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.276, "fair_value_reference": 5.510064, "structural_low": 4.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.013711, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.016974, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.292011, "worst_return": -0.179654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.200151, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.141591, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.470842, "worst_return": -0.273973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.194607, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.055093, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.37797, "worst_return": -0.046415, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009843, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049057, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040388, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02963, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.075402, "energy": 85.510135, "activity_lines": [ 5.140667, 5.527091, 5.968286, 6.197204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.6, "volume": 61415692, "typical_volume": 42000364.15, "trend": 6.355667, "fair_value": 5.515577, "relative_strength": -28.58016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.795638, "energy": 83.487931, "activity_lines": [ 4.925333, 5.286182, 5.812333, 6.079677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.07, "volume": 43900172, "typical_volume": 41322579.2, "trend": 6.306333, "fair_value": 5.511603, "relative_strength": -19.364162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.066328, "energy": 71.712651, "activity_lines": [ 4.938, 5.177818, 5.713857, 5.996731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.47, "volume": 52478481, "typical_volume": 41150674.8, "trend": 6.276, "fair_value": 5.510064, "relative_strength": -16.770638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.374792, "energy": 52.390145, "activity_lines": [ 5.092, 5.180182, 5.66419, 5.942774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }