{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa86e87a-42bb-4038-9edb-daf0725e9fba", "symbol": "5EF", "name": "Adventus Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.678, "architecture_energy": 38.723, "architecture_maturity": 16.531, "architecture_confidence": 75.403, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.47, "rotation_up": 22.26, "upward_expansion": 17.24, "deceleration": 44.34, "rotation_down": 63.84, "downward_expansion": 51.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003067, 0.0032, 0.00329, 0.003297 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.003267, "distance_from_trend": -0.081633, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.003673, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183246, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.040364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.404835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081633, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053763, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183246, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202854, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200404, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.427766, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 2.6e-05, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.088743, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128205, "annualized_volatility": 1.508799, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003267, "fair_value_reference": 0.003673, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.28, "directional_follow_through": 0.28, "median_excess_return": -0.010612, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.08533, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.131209, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.428571, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.39254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.2, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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0.003233, "fair_value": 0.003731, "relative_strength": -18.575799, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.498007, "energy": 18.081668, "activity_lines": [ 0.003467, 0.003327, 0.003386, 0.003346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3827610.0, "trend": 0.003267, "fair_value": 0.003712, "relative_strength": -19.337669, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.142431, "energy": 16.359109, "activity_lines": [ 0.003333, 0.003273, 0.003352, 0.003331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3785655.0, "trend": 0.003267, "fair_value": 0.003692, "relative_strength": -19.472909, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.342266, "energy": 18.241243, "activity_lines": [ 0.0032, 0.003236, 0.003319, 0.003314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 3785655.0, "trend": 0.003267, "fair_value": 0.003673, "relative_strength": -20.040364, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.678013, "energy": 38.722655, "activity_lines": [ 0.003067, 0.0032, 0.00329, 0.003297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }