{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa86ec2a-92d7-4b6c-9637-a230e59d6c1a", "symbol": "UB0F", "name": "UBS Core MSCI EMU UCITS ETF hGBP dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.921, "architecture_energy": 65.811, "architecture_maturity": 67.361, "architecture_confidence": 74.6, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.81, "rotation_up": 54.97, "upward_expansion": 82.24, "deceleration": 70.03, "rotation_down": 27.38, "downward_expansion": 11.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 1895.853333, 1887.463636, 1850.606191, 1814.729054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1936.1, "trend_reference": 1777.136813, "distance_from_trend": 0.089449, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1475.6168, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.312062, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.735706, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.113085, "excess_performance": 0.061849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089449, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044759, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.312062, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076692, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047357, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030843, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113085, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.057858, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47963, "relative_activity": 3.208367, "balance": 2.057858, "dry_up": 2.336372, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02034, "annualized_volatility": 0.171565, "from_high_reference": -0.000465, "from_low_reference": 0.272606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1777.136813, "fair_value_reference": 1475.6168, "structural_low": 1571.800049, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.005394, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.003378, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.073662, "worst_return": -0.105193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.013503, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001479, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.093254, "worst_return": -0.121854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.070329, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.005555, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.110446, "worst_return": -0.167597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1885.5, "volume": 44938, "typical_volume": 12626.85, "trend": 1770.196851, "fair_value": 1470.893495, "relative_strength": 2.402803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.627158, "energy": 55.531087, "activity_lines": [ 1877.86, 1874.472727, 1836.934287, 1804.025625 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1936.1, "volume": 47963, "typical_volume": 14949.35, "trend": 1777.136813, "fair_value": 1475.6168, "relative_strength": 4.735706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.921208, "energy": 65.810723, "activity_lines": [ 1895.853333, 1887.463636, 1850.606191, 1814.729054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }