{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa872a84-dfa6-4af5-afac-6f10fc052973", "symbol": "GASU", "name": "SavvyLong Geared Natural Gas ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.455, "architecture_energy": 90.56, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.214, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.32, "rotation_up": 8.9, "upward_expansion": 21.02, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 85.57, "downward_expansion": 99.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.562, 6.157455, 6.562857, 7.096559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.06, "trend_reference": 8.175667, "distance_from_trend": -0.38109, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.47759, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.692916, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.506757, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.5379, "excess_performance": -0.658321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.38109, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.692916, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.565068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020168, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5379, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43374, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21074, "relative_activity": 0.894767, "balance": 0.43374, "dry_up": 1.111092, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147613, "annualized_volatility": 0.640032, "from_high_reference": -0.757663, "from_low_reference": 0.028455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.175667, "fair_value_reference": 16.47759, "structural_low": 4.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.152429, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 27.5, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 33.0, "volume": 2101, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 32.200001, "volume": 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"typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.97, "volume": 30704, "typical_volume": 23664.15, "trend": 8.616667, "fair_value": 16.888125, "relative_strength": -50.349879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.87379, "energy": 57.333368, "activity_lines": [ 6.621333, 6.938909, 7.051619, 7.660602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.05, "volume": 14822, "typical_volume": 23097.55, "trend": 8.443333, "fair_value": 16.754321, "relative_strength": -48.779642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.547737, "energy": 76.340158, "activity_lines": [ 6.322667, 6.753818, 6.919762, 7.495011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.48, "volume": 38076, "typical_volume": 23200.8, "trend": 8.272667, "fair_value": 16.616829, "relative_strength": -52.393677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.728579, "energy": 85.983316, "activity_lines": [ 5.937333, 6.483636, 6.751619, 7.303828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.06, "volume": 21074, "typical_volume": 23552.5, "trend": 8.175667, "fair_value": 16.47759, "relative_strength": -56.506757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.454689, "energy": 90.560039, "activity_lines": [ 5.562, 6.157455, 6.562857, 7.096559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }