{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa94ba9f-e3a8-424a-81b8-4c26774e0175", "symbol": "301633", "name": "Wuhan Guide Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.521, "architecture_energy": 25.037, "architecture_maturity": 82.645, "architecture_confidence": 73.413, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.34, "rotation_up": 39.45, "upward_expansion": 21.61, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 19.43, "downward_expansion": 55.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.129333, 51.293454, 52.623232, 55.323323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 56.700001, "trend_reference": 59.406421, "distance_from_trend": -0.045558, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 72.387239, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.974384, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.178142, "excess_performance": -0.185541, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045558, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097195, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043408, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169744, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117156, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178142, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.913818, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5940451, "relative_activity": 2.09051, "balance": 0.913818, "dry_up": 2.595949, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090692, "annualized_volatility": 0.37101, "from_high_reference": -0.327402, "from_low_reference": 0.304348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.406421, "fair_value_reference": 72.387239, "structural_low": 43.470001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.073527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014941, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.040737, "worst_return": -0.187792, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.158342, "energy": 63.918069, "activity_lines": [ 46.851999, 48.004125, 52.624841, 56.19506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.419998, "volume": 11031907, "typical_volume": 2435009.05, "trend": 60.278087, "fair_value": 72.757402, "relative_strength": -17.756716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.424311, "energy": 38.53098, "activity_lines": [ 49.826665, 48.973004, 52.541305, 55.858495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.130001, "volume": 8797231, "typical_volume": 2777807.45, "trend": 59.847087, "fair_value": 72.561542, "relative_strength": -15.964769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.860319, "energy": 24.227267, "activity_lines": [ 52.086666, 49.975135, 52.481578, 55.526361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.700001, "volume": 5940451, "typical_volume": 2841628.15, "trend": 59.406421, "fair_value": 72.387239, "relative_strength": -16.974384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.521199, "energy": 25.03732, "activity_lines": [ 54.129333, 51.293454, 52.623232, 55.323323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }