{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fa9e4cb4-b67e-4973-bc4f-3082fc3a0cdf", "symbol": "ICAD", "name": "Icade", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.345, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.55, "architecture_energy": 11.772, "architecture_maturity": 16.885, "architecture_confidence": 64.079, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.08, "rotation_up": 26.76, "upward_expansion": 29.12, "deceleration": 46.28, "rotation_down": 28.16, "downward_expansion": 44.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.176667, 19.131222, 19.025038, 19.219809 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.950001, "trend_reference": 19.639511, "distance_from_trend": -0.035108, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.247454, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.108128, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.846807, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126728, "excess_performance": -0.180039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031929, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.108128, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06003, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128468, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02359, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126728, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.39572, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 601314, "relative_activity": 1.392268, "balance": 1.39572, "dry_up": 1.269146, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04361, "annualized_volatility": 0.282452, "from_high_reference": -0.178231, "from_low_reference": 0.065552 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.639511, "fair_value_reference": 21.247454, "structural_low": 17.784212, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.007533, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.004939, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.115578, "worst_return": -0.154408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019553, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.041482, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.170936, "worst_return": -0.197521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.072639, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.126678, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075199, "worst_return": -0.377154, 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-0.063407, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07282, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055762, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.154279, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101133, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025024, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086592, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00925, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029201, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 23.657028, "volume": 403327, "typical_volume": 392917.85, "trend": 28.577858, "fair_value": 34.018118, "relative_strength": -18.299515, "stage": 4, 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-11.702363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.874471, "energy": 22.3799, "activity_lines": [ 18.985302, 18.902323, 18.996139, 19.372908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.17, "volume": 571512, "typical_volume": 454162.55, "trend": 19.858511, "fair_value": 21.391976, "relative_strength": -8.942723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.54218, "energy": 15.411383, "activity_lines": [ 19.029209, 18.977817, 18.987447, 19.324037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.280001, "volume": 552286, "typical_volume": 441514.5, "trend": 19.786511, "fair_value": 21.339745, "relative_strength": -8.519669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.990763, "energy": 11.086269, "activity_lines": [ 19.121334, 19.056355, 18.999945, 19.286713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.52, "volume": 467441, "typical_volume": 431104.0, "trend": 19.720511, "fair_value": 21.295379, "relative_strength": -8.569552, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.489881, "energy": 7.033145, "activity_lines": [ 19.249333, 19.156443, 19.039396, 19.269519 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.950001, "volume": 601314, "typical_volume": 431895.45, "trend": 19.639511, "fair_value": 21.247454, "relative_strength": -12.846807, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.54972, "energy": 11.772137, "activity_lines": [ 19.176667, 19.131222, 19.025038, 19.219809 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }