{ "ticker": { "uuid": "faa1bc72-fe8c-45cf-8f96-780a9da9bc85", "symbol": "GYC", "name": "Grand City Properties S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.418, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.963, "architecture_energy": 27.307, "architecture_maturity": 8.313, "architecture_confidence": 66.693, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.46, "rotation_up": 62.4, "upward_expansion": 38.22, "deceleration": 32.61, "rotation_down": 17.31, "downward_expansion": 22.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.518667, 9.34096, 9.268172, 9.361231 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.66, "trend_reference": 9.511288, "distance_from_trend": 0.015635, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.348517, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066533, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.262916, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01227, "excess_performance": -0.186517, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015635, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036178, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066533, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037704, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046753, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01227, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.372825, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.372825, "dry_up": 1.357876, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041805, "annualized_volatility": 0.358211, "from_high_reference": -0.162912, "from_low_reference": 0.12065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.511288, "fair_value_reference": 10.348517, "structural_low": 8.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.02844, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.033307, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.244939, "worst_return": -0.285049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029674, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.131329, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.189761, "worst_return": -0.248754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.104018, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.114548, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.450195, "worst_return": -0.281528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.158632, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.265975, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064552, "worst_return": -0.539767, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101313, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088339, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098776, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01704, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003584, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022928, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021314, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058716, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132114, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126404, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047201, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013584, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004124, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.375, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 193.6, "trend": 7.913333, "fair_value": 15.420353, "relative_strength": -16.449009, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.71819, "energy": 11.40881, "activity_lines": [ 7.487667, 7.465, 7.442643, 7.520774 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 7.41, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 193.6, "trend": 7.826, "fair_value": 15.342933, "relative_strength": -14.623766, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.649574, "energy": 16.680893, "activity_lines": [ 7.439, 7.459727, 7.443762, 7.488301 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 8.115, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 143.6, "trend": 7.743167, "fair_value": 15.273409, "relative_strength": -7.671733, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.103418, "energy": 10.803249, "activity_lines": [ 7.656667, 7.588455, 7.508571, 7.506946 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 8.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 143.6, "trend": 7.681167, "fair_value": 15.199505, "relative_strength": -3.487178, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", 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5.039631, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.797405, "energy": 82.180518, "activity_lines": [ 8.797667, 8.348182, 7.96981, 7.785785 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 8.885, "volume": 4305, "typical_volume": 239.35, "trend": 7.608667, "fair_value": 14.930503, "relative_strength": 6.139588, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.14661, "energy": 79.38457, "activity_lines": [ 8.884667, 8.501273, 8.079048, 7.86872 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 8.48, "volume": 1586, "typical_volume": 318.65, "trend": 7.643667, "fair_value": 14.864366, "relative_strength": 0.907861, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.36298, "energy": 67.238283, "activity_lines": [ 8.785333, 8.556727, 8.142571, 7.924935 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 8.13, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 318.65, "trend": 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9.097575, 9.242692, 9.451897, 9.584212 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 8.713943, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 109.5, "trend": 9.733966, "fair_value": 10.252141, "relative_strength": -31.351433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.014961, "energy": 49.954137, "activity_lines": [ 8.958307, 9.12059, 9.365344, 9.514348 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 8.839671, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 70.95, "trend": 9.661955, "fair_value": 10.263581, "relative_strength": -32.474667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.406739, "energy": 60.880712, "activity_lines": [ 8.889318, 9.036912, 9.293508, 9.456652 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 9.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 70.95, "trend": 9.598955, "fair_value": 10.275312, "relative_strength": -28.953086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"relative_strength": -25.174491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.182188, "energy": 19.367626, "activity_lines": [ 9.147311, 9.076048, 9.170819, 9.347094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.44, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 60.35, "trend": 9.524288, "fair_value": 10.320312, "relative_strength": -23.206999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.519301, "energy": 18.522742, "activity_lines": [ 9.259333, 9.142359, 9.184683, 9.34129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.7, "volume": 450, "typical_volume": 82.85, "trend": 9.526622, "fair_value": 10.334991, "relative_strength": -20.365246, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.34225, "energy": 15.091148, "activity_lines": [ 9.418, 9.246611, 9.229213, 9.352626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.66, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 82.85, "trend": 9.511288, "fair_value": 10.348517, "relative_strength": -22.262916, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.963254, "energy": 27.307393, "activity_lines": [ 9.518667, 9.34096, 9.268172, 9.361231 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }