{ "ticker": { "uuid": "faa3ac9a-4084-49f5-9bfa-e0c026ce719e", "symbol": "HIVE", "name": "HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 66.74, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.625, "architecture_energy": 19.005, "architecture_maturity": 51.729, "architecture_confidence": 72.477, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.2, "rotation_up": 14.45, "upward_expansion": 41.46, "deceleration": 86.9, "rotation_down": 47.45, "downward_expansion": 37.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.07, 4.490182, 4.604619, 4.289527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.98, "trend_reference": 3.987, "distance_from_trend": -0.001756, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.236538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060554, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.544591, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.251572, "excess_performance": 0.131151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001756, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032991, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060554, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042654, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215446, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084298, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.251572, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.66415, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6594600, "relative_activity": 0.5591, "balance": 1.66415, "dry_up": 0.840191, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.247391, "annualized_volatility": 0.930677, "from_high_reference": -0.636861, "from_low_reference": 0.644628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.987, "fair_value_reference": 4.236538, "structural_low": 2.42, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.079013, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.094961, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.281513, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.243243, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.295285, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.163866, "worst_return": -0.530892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.060654, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.142448, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.366505, "worst_return": -0.770571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.181641, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.344933, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.004577, "worst_return": -0.847447, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08238, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140845, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.106897, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.432624, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038835, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182519, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.273927, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.28852, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002506, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.12, "volume": 1506500, "typical_volume": 1963115.0, "trend": 4.924333, "fair_value": 10.399423, "relative_strength": 12.908135, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.279924, "energy": 20.294678, 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"fair_value": 4.26609, "relative_strength": -15.064511, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.539646, "energy": 24.874807, "activity_lines": [ 4.402667, 4.910727, 4.649333, 4.291505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.98, "volume": 12929900, "typical_volume": 11818295.0, "trend": 3.999333, "fair_value": 4.251282, "relative_strength": -18.896722, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.496084, "energy": 21.330396, "activity_lines": [ 4.179333, 4.685455, 4.629476, 4.290774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.98, "volume": 6594600, "typical_volume": 11795020.0, "trend": 3.987, "fair_value": 4.236538, "relative_strength": -21.544591, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.625253, "energy": 19.004617, "activity_lines": [ 4.07, 4.490182, 4.604619, 4.289527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }