{ "ticker": { "uuid": "faa97756-f1c1-47fe-a53d-3f51d42a0057", "symbol": "300570", "name": "T&S Communications Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.6, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.334, "architecture_energy": 34.832, "architecture_maturity": 62.523, "architecture_confidence": 49.394, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.87, "rotation_up": 16.69, "upward_expansion": 19.01, "deceleration": 70.14, "rotation_down": 64.88, "downward_expansion": 41.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 140.582663, 170.438475, 172.317262, 163.038137 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 143.429993, "trend_reference": 150.037963, "distance_from_trend": -0.044042, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 80.748219, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.776262, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.533239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146523, "excess_performance": 0.139123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044042, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211612, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.776262, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.576115, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055332, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14959, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146523, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.15707, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143431788, "relative_activity": 1.450816, "balance": 1.15707, "dry_up": 0.954254, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.258301, "annualized_volatility": 0.974533, "from_high_reference": -0.470961, "from_low_reference": 0.667403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 150.037963, "fair_value_reference": 80.748219, "structural_low": 102.300003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.046157, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.027715, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.273253, "worst_return": -0.266712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007237, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.044951, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.462073, "worst_return": -0.124167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.264074, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.149848, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.898849, "worst_return": -0.141504, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123584, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155585, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.291494, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036644, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013501, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.538323, "energy": 41.01275, "activity_lines": [ 205.218906, 203.26169, 181.311009, 166.490497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 135.929993, "volume": 80980209, "typical_volume": 98427480.05, "trend": 149.216963, "fair_value": 79.659611, "relative_strength": 3.718256, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.797299, "energy": 16.990718, "activity_lines": [ 176.792404, 192.611163, 178.775252, 165.676563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.0, "volume": 79837537, "typical_volume": 97124879.85, "trend": 149.10863, "fair_value": 80.089869, "relative_strength": -11.61349, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.424097, "energy": 27.027398, "activity_lines": [ 149.816039, 178.418274, 174.111733, 163.404501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 143.429993, "volume": 143431788, "typical_volume": 98862819.35, "trend": 150.037963, "fair_value": 80.748219, "relative_strength": 5.533239, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.334304, "energy": 34.831519, "activity_lines": [ 140.582663, 170.438475, 172.317262, 163.038137 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }