{ "ticker": { "uuid": "faaa9b5d-8502-4c6c-a069-3e439ce3fc82", "symbol": "MLOCT", "name": "Octopus Biosafety SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.149, "architecture_energy": 60.611, "architecture_maturity": 22.528, "architecture_confidence": 83.349, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.24, "rotation_up": 12.15, "upward_expansion": 12.07, "deceleration": 39.99, "rotation_down": 69.22, "downward_expansion": 87.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1604, 0.166564, 0.180471, 0.183422 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.156, "trend_reference": 0.184967, "distance_from_trend": -0.156605, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.226314, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310693, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.962506, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.178947, "excess_performance": -0.232259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090626, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310693, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158334, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.309625, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153981, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.341651, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19707, "relative_activity": 1.003759, "balance": 1.341651, "dry_up": 0.883147, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142012, "annualized_volatility": 0.653406, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 0.248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.184967, "fair_value_reference": 0.226314, "structural_low": 0.125, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.030566, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.212121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.026087, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.018262, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062857, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.029763, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.73913, "worst_return": -0.393939, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.242424, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.183054, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.242424, "worst_return": 0.242424, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.404762, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.4375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.470588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.534188, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.8, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10828, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028736, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082353, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.282, "volume": 42916, "typical_volume": 15722.7, "trend": 0.338467, "fair_value": 0.956775, "relative_strength": -30.49136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.412664, "energy": 21.676438, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.17, "volume": 34136, "typical_volume": 24993.45, "trend": 0.1868, "fair_value": 0.229615, "relative_strength": -29.034747, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.517754, "energy": 44.726652, "activity_lines": [ 0.174933, 0.184327, 0.191786, 0.189862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.17, "volume": 12812, "typical_volume": 24333.05, "trend": 0.186633, "fair_value": 0.228846, "relative_strength": -27.108911, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.658812, "energy": 47.616448, "activity_lines": [ 0.1724, 0.180327, 0.189852, 0.188778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.16, "volume": 13819, "typical_volume": 21166.0, "trend": 0.1863, "fair_value": 0.22809, "relative_strength": -29.707417, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.583328, "energy": 50.852677, "activity_lines": [ 0.167667, 0.175055, 0.186919, 0.18706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.159, "volume": 23018, "typical_volume": 21406.15, "trend": 0.1851, "fair_value": 0.227429, "relative_strength": -29.631874, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.622403, "energy": 49.638529, "activity_lines": [ 0.164333, 0.170582, 0.18381, 0.185299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.156, "volume": 19707, "typical_volume": 19633.2, "trend": 0.184967, "fair_value": 0.226314, "relative_strength": -30.962506, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.148567, "energy": 60.610756, "activity_lines": [ 0.1604, 0.166564, 0.180471, 0.183422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }