{ "ticker": { "uuid": "faab8d4e-a7f0-4650-9aa7-706e271c1f00", "symbol": "WMG", "name": "Warner Music Group", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.148, "architecture_energy": 49.948, "architecture_maturity": 8.316, "architecture_confidence": 79.258, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.88, "rotation_up": 8.89, "upward_expansion": 16.29, "deceleration": 46.09, "rotation_down": 61.66, "downward_expansion": 75.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.739333, 27.323455, 28.567613, 28.540277 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.39, "trend_reference": 28.652071, "distance_from_trend": -0.07895, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.030532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121228, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.374017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.080639, "excess_performance": -0.268092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07895, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016863, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121228, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235176, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.22374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.080639, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.793821, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13362294, "relative_activity": 1.177263, "balance": 0.793821, "dry_up": 0.954049, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094976, "annualized_volatility": 0.449129, "from_high_reference": -0.250845, "from_low_reference": 0.136893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.652071, "fair_value_reference": 30.030532, "structural_low": 23.212386, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.043192, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.012687, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.221001, "worst_return": -0.218767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.039937, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.028839, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.43096, "worst_return": -0.133433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069676, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.049938, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.349109, "worst_return": -0.105341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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28.04, 29.442628, 29.269831, 29.094867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.99, "volume": 12332696, "typical_volume": 11521616.65, "trend": 29.054896, "fair_value": 30.103578, "relative_strength": -17.031601, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.112637, "energy": 20.538591, "activity_lines": [ 28.25, 29.22041, 29.289222, 29.093971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.33, "volume": 8124298, "typical_volume": 11168431.65, "trend": 29.032524, "fair_value": 30.099416, "relative_strength": -14.933869, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.421891, "energy": 16.947588, "activity_lines": [ 28.302667, 28.857046, 29.249264, 29.047203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.55, "volume": 9071818, "typical_volume": 11142490.9, "trend": 28.931057, "fair_value": 30.078516, "relative_strength": -18.491524, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.993393, "energy": 23.811527, "activity_lines": [ 27.770667, 28.258185, 29.040323, 28.887041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.96, "volume": 12756613, "typical_volume": 11302801.8, "trend": 28.793785, "fair_value": 30.058324, "relative_strength": -20.322646, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.859118, "energy": 36.722142, "activity_lines": [ 27.15, 27.673818, 28.780609, 28.695359 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.39, "volume": 13362294, "typical_volume": 11350309.5, "trend": 28.652071, "fair_value": 30.030532, "relative_strength": -22.374017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.148246, "energy": 49.948406, "activity_lines": [ 26.739333, 27.323455, 28.567613, 28.540277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }