{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fab477a7-e608-4a6d-84c9-005780d3b7da", "symbol": "9532", "name": "Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.275, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.309, "architecture_energy": 12.334, "architecture_maturity": 20.157, "architecture_confidence": 73.493, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.48, "rotation_up": 16.53, "upward_expansion": 21.95, "deceleration": 73.9, "rotation_down": 51.76, "downward_expansion": 32.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.285333, 2.365091, 2.351476, 2.331763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.25, "trend_reference": 2.316667, "distance_from_trend": -0.028777, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.678343, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340608, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.850104, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004464, "excess_performance": 0.036294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028777, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037313, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340608, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095747, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038501, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107578, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004464, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.21391, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 525110, "relative_activity": 0.844744, "balance": 2.21391, "dry_up": 0.61995, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119658, "annualized_volatility": 0.331126, "from_high_reference": -0.213287, "from_low_reference": 0.363636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.316667, "fair_value_reference": 1.678343, "structural_low": 1.99, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.007937, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.015513, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.095652, "worst_return": -0.123188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069767, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021665, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.194969, "worst_return": -0.218, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.129881, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.053721, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.371069, "worst_return": -0.111307, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 614044.0, "trend": 2.308333, "fair_value": 1.661628, "relative_strength": 16.147544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.797874, "energy": 29.907365, "activity_lines": [ 2.486, 2.455455, 2.37519, 2.345312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.33, "volume": 114122, "typical_volume": 589377.85, "trend": 2.314, "fair_value": 1.66759, "relative_strength": 8.932231, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.458193, "energy": 18.507195, "activity_lines": [ 2.428667, 2.440727, 2.375524, 2.34671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.15, "volume": 534023, "typical_volume": 597777.75, "trend": 2.317667, "fair_value": 1.67267, "relative_strength": 2.061694, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.799171, "energy": 9.240155, "activity_lines": [ 2.332, 2.392727, 2.358429, 2.336129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.25, "volume": 525110, "typical_volume": 621620.05, "trend": 2.316667, "fair_value": 1.678343, "relative_strength": 3.850104, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.309411, "energy": 12.33413, "activity_lines": [ 2.285333, 2.365091, 2.351476, 2.331763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }