{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fac2a190-2fc1-45cf-ba05-e9f5e1204d51", "symbol": "MBH", "name": "Michelmersh Brick Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.071, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.067, "architecture_energy": 8.873, "architecture_maturity": 42.29, "architecture_confidence": 54.299, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.8, "rotation_up": 25.33, "upward_expansion": 33.26, "deceleration": 66.22, "rotation_down": 32.57, "downward_expansion": 19.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.778, 0.784091, 0.765809, 0.762954 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.765, "trend_reference": 0.771798, "distance_from_trend": -0.008808, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.865197, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.115808, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.430419, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.075808, "excess_performance": -0.127043, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008808, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013991, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.115808, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09074, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134304, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135445, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075808, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.370214, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 527611, "relative_activity": 0.885635, "balance": 1.370214, "dry_up": 0.664029, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048646, "annualized_volatility": 0.338995, "from_high_reference": -0.243143, "from_low_reference": 0.20425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.771798, "fair_value_reference": 0.865197, "structural_low": 0.63525, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005291, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.043024, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.074468, "worst_return": -0.069307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.029255, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014845, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05851, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.043083, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005958, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04411, "worst_return": 0.042056, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"close": 0.795, "volume": 336060, "typical_volume": 651281.05, "trend": 0.776919, "fair_value": 0.865481, "relative_strength": -10.179755, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.041036, "energy": 47.969743, "activity_lines": [ 0.798333, 0.785827, 0.757652, 0.763309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.785, "volume": 361224, "typical_volume": 634620.15, "trend": 0.775333, "fair_value": 0.865396, "relative_strength": -11.579106, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.850007, "energy": 33.775384, "activity_lines": [ 0.795333, 0.788981, 0.761346, 0.76383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.77, "volume": 357467, "typical_volume": 618173.15, "trend": 0.773248, "fair_value": 0.865244, "relative_strength": -13.419757, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.298697, "energy": 21.748945, "activity_lines": [ 0.787, 0.787559, 0.76377, 0.763486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.765, "volume": 527611, "typical_volume": 595743.1, "trend": 0.771798, "fair_value": 0.865197, "relative_strength": -13.430419, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.066572, "energy": 8.872784, "activity_lines": [ 0.778, 0.784091, 0.765809, 0.762954 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }