{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fac32450-637a-402c-bd8c-e2f06a6e78f5", "symbol": "CTRM", "name": "Castor Maritime Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 89.939, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.243, "architecture_energy": 14.198, "architecture_maturity": 15.582, "architecture_confidence": 55.237, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.4, "rotation_up": 19.22, "upward_expansion": 15.64, "deceleration": 65.96, "rotation_down": 50.73, "downward_expansion": 38.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.981333, 2.043455, 2.032048, 2.025914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.04, "trend_reference": 2.042333, "distance_from_trend": -0.001142, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.079382, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.337529, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.762977, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042254, "excess_performance": -0.229707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001142, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002559, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.337529, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053442, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077517, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042254, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.112698, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165179, "relative_activity": 0.701408, "balance": 1.112698, "dry_up": 0.680458, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126934, "annualized_volatility": 0.41918, "from_high_reference": -0.231407, "from_low_reference": 0.228916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.042333, "fair_value_reference": 3.079382, "structural_low": 1.66, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.070755, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.091858, "regime_survival": 0.421053, "best_return": 0.382353, "worst_return": -0.423723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.138262, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.181597, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.199702, "worst_return": -0.432773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.108787, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.24227, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.059908, "worst_return": -0.629464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.456202, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.532574, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.100418, "worst_return": -0.593125, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.226044, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055794, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129268, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.367688, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125523, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009132, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-06-26", "close": 2.12, "volume": 267027, "typical_volume": 277032.55, "trend": 2.074667, "fair_value": 3.180049, "relative_strength": -11.881573, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.966533, "energy": 24.924783, "activity_lines": [ 2.126667, 2.071636, 2.012333, 2.034839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.26, "volume": 117599, "typical_volume": 272473.75, "trend": 2.076667, "fair_value": 3.166818, "relative_strength": -6.375005, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.361304, "energy": 41.435925, "activity_lines": [ 2.181333, 2.112, 2.035048, 2.046796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.15, "volume": 247457, "typical_volume": 269366.4, "trend": 2.074667, "fair_value": 3.151895, "relative_strength": -11.833671, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.494294, "energy": 27.821307, "activity_lines": [ 2.175333, 2.126364, 2.046857, 2.051527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.98, "volume": 176345, "typical_volume": 267973.65, "trend": 2.066, "fair_value": 3.135876, "relative_strength": -14.636533, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.81443, "energy": 6.708394, "activity_lines": [ 2.111333, 2.108364, 2.043381, 2.045419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.87, "volume": 193746, "typical_volume": 246774.3, "trend": 2.051, "fair_value": 3.118504, "relative_strength": -17.423332, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.66442, "energy": 12.130285, "activity_lines": [ 2.024, 2.070909, 2.030381, 2.032774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.95, "volume": 105711, "typical_volume": 239410.05, "trend": 2.045333, "fair_value": 3.101632, "relative_strength": -13.815977, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.749264, "energy": 14.761577, "activity_lines": [ 1.982, 2.048727, 2.026524, 2.026258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.04, "volume": 165179, "typical_volume": 235496.15, "trend": 2.042333, "fair_value": 3.079382, "relative_strength": -13.762977, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.242773, "energy": 14.19777, "activity_lines": [ 1.981333, 2.043455, 2.032048, 2.025914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }