{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fac331e6-f2dc-4e78-becf-fd1b3f005a87", "symbol": "CBSEUA", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI Euro Area Liquid Corp Sustainable UCITS ETF EUR acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 54.946, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.501, "architecture_energy": 70.223, "architecture_maturity": 9.971, "architecture_confidence": 68.967, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.68, "rotation_up": 65.97, "upward_expansion": 82.65, "deceleration": 61.61, "rotation_down": 19.09, "downward_expansion": 11.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.105167, 14.079245, 14.008957, 13.95851 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.2205, "trend_reference": 13.928033, "distance_from_trend": 0.020998, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.662169, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040867, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.591755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.019537, "excess_performance": -0.063346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020998, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000178, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040867, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018129, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041038, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019537, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.5, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2400, "relative_activity": 1.739824, "balance": 5.5, "dry_up": 1.196129, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004828, "annualized_volatility": 0.042076, "from_high_reference": -0.060845, "from_low_reference": 0.050841 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.928033, "fair_value_reference": 13.662169, "structural_low": 13.5325, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.002401, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.009581, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.026063, "worst_return": -0.027403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001984, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.031371, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.035487, "worst_return": -0.018696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009267, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.009617, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.02098, "worst_return": -0.027449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001026, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029168, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002317, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076942, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011084, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009641, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014759, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007555, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012748, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.6665, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9.5, "trend": 12.873683, "fair_value": 14.885516, "relative_strength": 0.69313, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"2026-07-03", "close": 14.0525, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1727.55, "trend": 13.925917, "fair_value": 13.618871, "relative_strength": -10.475161, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.699581, "energy": 77.252404, "activity_lines": [ 14.0609, 13.990864, 13.91939, 13.909912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.0385, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1715.05, "trend": 13.924267, "fair_value": 13.627031, "relative_strength": -9.086346, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.28543, "energy": 77.179972, "activity_lines": [ 14.061, 14.009091, 13.935448, 13.917175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.99, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 1781.55, "trend": 13.922517, "fair_value": 13.63488, "relative_strength": -9.783461, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.492429, "energy": 62.936163, "activity_lines": [ 14.0366, 14.014827, 13.946483, 13.921416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.0415, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1751.55, "trend": 13.923033, "fair_value": 13.643505, "relative_strength": -9.038896, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.403075, "energy": 50.632949, "activity_lines": [ 14.0323, 14.027709, 13.961979, 13.929092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.083, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 1349.45, "trend": 13.9245, "fair_value": 13.652396, "relative_strength": -8.570133, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.309671, "energy": 54.32337, "activity_lines": [ 14.045367, 14.0434, 13.980119, 13.939413 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.2205, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 1379.45, "trend": 13.928033, "fair_value": 13.662169, "relative_strength": -8.591755, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.501265, "energy": 70.223178, "activity_lines": [ 14.105167, 14.079245, 14.008957, 13.95851 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }