{ "ticker": { "uuid": "face755a-7fb1-4f79-8b92-a2432c7a0cc2", "symbol": "EXP", "name": "Experience Co Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.696, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.423, "architecture_energy": 33.416, "architecture_maturity": 17.823, "architecture_confidence": 67.603, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.53, "rotation_up": 66.55, "upward_expansion": 43.78, "deceleration": 38.94, "rotation_down": 16.77, "downward_expansion": 18.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.095933, 0.090127, 0.088095, 0.089768 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.096, "trend_reference": 0.094533, "distance_from_trend": 0.015515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.135905, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.293624, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.242722, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.127273, "excess_performance": -0.190978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015515, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127921, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.293624, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097539, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192427, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054453, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127273, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.208952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 964617, "relative_activity": 0.428863, "balance": 0.208952, "dry_up": 3.748876, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10016, "annualized_volatility": 0.522081, "from_high_reference": -0.418182, "from_low_reference": 0.371429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.094533, "fair_value_reference": 0.135905, "structural_low": 0.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.041666, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.033895, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.397914, "worst_return": -0.27586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.021743, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.043618, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.333336, "worst_return": -0.27586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.18355, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.192824, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.304345, "worst_return": -0.292306, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.27586, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079999, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.249998, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048925, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.183333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010309, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.221311, "volume": 735666, "typical_volume": 1796438.45, "trend": 0.254426, "fair_value": 0.259049, "relative_strength": -7.696862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"fair_value": 0.138485, "relative_strength": -14.253318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.809656, "energy": 16.743337, "activity_lines": [ 0.084933, 0.083455, 0.085548, 0.089688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.098, "volume": 1437617, "typical_volume": 946858.4, "trend": 0.0966, "fair_value": 0.137694, "relative_strength": -13.702208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.548025, "energy": 14.73511, "activity_lines": [ 0.090267, 0.086, 0.08649, 0.08971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.097, "volume": 26084780, "typical_volume": 2216640.1, "trend": 0.0955, "fair_value": 0.136834, "relative_strength": -16.106363, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.136787, "energy": 23.177519, "activity_lines": [ 0.094, 0.088236, 0.087348, 0.089735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.096, "volume": 964617, "typical_volume": 2249244.95, "trend": 0.094533, "fair_value": 0.135905, "relative_strength": -19.242722, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.423084, "energy": 33.415952, "activity_lines": [ 0.095933, 0.090127, 0.088095, 0.089768 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }