{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fad45e5f-acb9-4742-a055-c23b3f49ea6f", "symbol": "AUTME", "name": "Autostrade Meridionali S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.068, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.199, "architecture_energy": 33.751, "architecture_maturity": 21.538, "architecture_confidence": 94.629, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.74, "rotation_up": 22.17, "upward_expansion": 6.2, "deceleration": 44.3, "rotation_down": 50.41, "downward_expansion": 77.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.714667, 2.721091, 2.743238, 2.766978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.68, "trend_reference": 2.804, "distance_from_trend": -0.044223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.93215, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.318439, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.420309, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.083761, "excess_performance": -0.254652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044223, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004298, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.318439, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013276, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174203, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068762, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083761, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.702276, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6364, "relative_activity": 1.16035, "balance": 0.702276, "dry_up": 2.244988, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040184, "annualized_volatility": 0.206426, "from_high_reference": -0.106667, "from_low_reference": 0.076305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.804, "fair_value_reference": 3.93215, "structural_low": 2.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.033224, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.011475, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.991632, "worst_return": -0.054545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059449, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013329, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.667301, "worst_return": -0.612928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018182, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.103479, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.747827, "worst_return": -0.624483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043152, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054545, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 2.72, "volume": 20327, "typical_volume": 9156.15, "trend": 2.813667, "fair_value": 4.011476, "relative_strength": -14.40094, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.143918, "energy": 40.161799, "activity_lines": [ 2.728, 2.739636, 2.761905, 2.786129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.76, "volume": 6377, "typical_volume": 4991.45, "trend": 2.813167, "fair_value": 3.989552, "relative_strength": -12.678022, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.00476, "energy": 23.270901, "activity_lines": [ 2.734667, 2.740727, 2.759452, 2.782667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.7, "volume": 16183, "typical_volume": 5330.4, "trend": 2.81, "fair_value": 3.964778, "relative_strength": -14.75806, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.061263, "energy": 22.520584, "activity_lines": [ 2.729333, 2.732, 2.751762, 2.775366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.68, "volume": 6364, "typical_volume": 5484.55, "trend": 2.804, "fair_value": 3.93215, "relative_strength": -17.420309, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.199359, "energy": 33.751237, "activity_lines": [ 2.714667, 2.721091, 2.743238, 2.766978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }