{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fade6c5f-724a-4ae8-8b79-f6fa452825bf", "symbol": "PRIO3", "name": "Prio S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.992, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.853, "architecture_energy": 13.22, "architecture_maturity": 24.352, "architecture_confidence": 47.279, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.56, "rotation_up": 40.09, "upward_expansion": 27.16, "deceleration": 49.27, "rotation_down": 23.08, "downward_expansion": 29.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.550667, 57.522182, 59.647477, 60.282022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 57.450001, "trend_reference": 59.248334, "distance_from_trend": -0.030352, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.787687, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.254704, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.397634, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.134703, "excess_performance": 0.191751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030352, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112512, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.254704, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178433, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.113976, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134703, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.246376, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39685300, "relative_activity": 1.003713, "balance": 1.246376, "dry_up": 0.849975, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068555, "annualized_volatility": 0.424764, "from_high_reference": -0.212798, "from_low_reference": 0.680808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.248334, "fair_value_reference": 45.787687, "structural_low": 50.209999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.054148, "positive_rate": 0.772727, "directional_follow_through": 0.772727, "median_excess_return": 0.037302, "regime_survival": 0.409091, "best_return": 0.221025, "worst_return": -0.11069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.003338, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.035472, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.512736, "worst_return": -0.152369, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.1769, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.19013, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.594076, "worst_return": -0.064913, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.874025, "energy": 59.139229, "activity_lines": [ 55.557333, 59.038364, 61.581334, 60.098065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.450001, "volume": 44409500, "typical_volume": 54054125.0, "trend": 56.857667, "fair_value": 45.473529, "relative_strength": 5.006955, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.097081, "energy": 58.872236, "activity_lines": [ 54.98, 57.937637, 60.956762, 60.041742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.849998, "volume": 31829200, "typical_volume": 52744750.0, "trend": 57.512333, "fair_value": 45.555276, "relative_strength": 12.108874, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.038062, "energy": 57.627051, "activity_lines": [ 55.580666, 57.472545, 60.558715, 60.105764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.82, "volume": 26206900, "typical_volume": 48793100.0, "trend": 58.119667, "fair_value": 45.643304, "relative_strength": 13.596141, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.438539, "energy": 26.474315, "activity_lines": [ 56.737333, 57.282364, 60.237048, 60.190129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.85, "volume": 36705600, "typical_volume": 42641775.0, "trend": 58.756, "fair_value": 45.728921, "relative_strength": 14.664362, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.567501, "energy": 8.707897, "activity_lines": [ 58.462666, 57.642727, 60.111429, 60.36628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.450001, "volume": 39685300, "typical_volume": 39538500.0, "trend": 59.248334, "fair_value": 45.787687, "relative_strength": 11.397634, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.852944, "energy": 13.219797, "activity_lines": [ 58.550667, 57.522182, 59.647477, 60.282022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }