{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fae6e7d4-00c3-45c9-8a3c-cd5aaf3951ab", "symbol": "WNEW", "name": "WisdomTree New Economy Real Estate UCITS ETF - USD", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.299, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.59, "architecture_energy": 26.261, "architecture_maturity": 39.077, "architecture_confidence": 61.872, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.12, "rotation_up": 14.59, "upward_expansion": 20.59, "deceleration": 65.44, "rotation_down": 58.26, "downward_expansion": 36.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 2140.1, 2168.885827, 2201.249688, 2177.425909 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2144.25, "trend_reference": 2142.579211, "distance_from_trend": 0.00078, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1750.382174, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225018, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.788469, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080009, "excess_performance": 0.028774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00078, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040582, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225018, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085603, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080009, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.260614, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1023, "relative_activity": 0.421647, "balance": 1.260614, "dry_up": 1.006409, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03804, "annualized_volatility": 0.191448, "from_high_reference": -0.108791, "from_low_reference": 0.279933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2142.579211, "fair_value_reference": 1750.382174, "structural_low": 1898.400024, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000117, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.035627, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.057402, "worst_return": -0.046161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0096, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.088124, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06759, "worst_return": -0.019448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.049314, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188959, "worst_return": -0.049491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.025602, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.113391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025602, "worst_return": 0.025602, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016197, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004069, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001746, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014795, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044973, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01903, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.093549, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", 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2122.613574, "fair_value": 1738.696376, "relative_strength": -2.706696, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.658803, "energy": 22.258957, "activity_lines": [ 2162.198027, 2216.358176, 2208.694587, 2173.793276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2181.75, "volume": 1748, "typical_volume": 2421.9, "trend": 2131.093074, "fair_value": 1742.661468, "relative_strength": -0.394429, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.779012, "energy": 23.559244, "activity_lines": [ 2157.547793, 2204.63406, 2209.756605, 2177.608529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2122.0, "volume": 335, "typical_volume": 2414.75, "trend": 2137.987544, "fair_value": 1746.393481, "relative_strength": -4.390782, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.069373, "energy": 24.416331, "activity_lines": [ 2140.7, 2183.041762, 2204.646004, 2177.021879 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2144.25, "volume": 1023, "typical_volume": 2426.2, "trend": 2142.579211, "fair_value": 1750.382174, "relative_strength": -3.788469, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.589528, "energy": 26.260595, "activity_lines": [ 2140.1, 2168.885827, 2201.249688, 2177.425909 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }