{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fae7db34-f097-4a66-95a6-1bb84c7359b1", "symbol": "MC", "name": "LVMH Mo\u00ebt Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Europ\u00e9enne", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.404, "architecture_energy": 22.723, "architecture_maturity": 26.921, "architecture_confidence": 55.678, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.49, "rotation_up": 12.93, "upward_expansion": 14.2, "deceleration": 59.55, "rotation_down": 50.09, "downward_expansion": 59.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 477.720001, 484.264547, 481.859866, 482.558588 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 480.0, "trend_reference": 493.18399, "distance_from_trend": -0.026732, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 595.918421, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.194521, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.414166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.090215, "excess_performance": -0.143526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026732, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081027, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.194521, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044991, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144142, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044054, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090215, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.497203, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2315420, "relative_activity": 1.088867, "balance": 1.497203, "dry_up": 1.176459, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054483, "annualized_volatility": 0.286555, "from_high_reference": -0.254429, "from_low_reference": 0.093053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 493.18399, "fair_value_reference": 595.918421, "structural_low": 440.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.038428, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.031036, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.187706, "worst_return": -0.068338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005042, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.024142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.260663, "worst_return": -0.179656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.062444, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.050966, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.128442, 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"green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026115, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059792, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174419, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.13862, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038558, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 726.877258, "volume": 1625993, "typical_volume": 1604225.25, "trend": 780.618392, "fair_value": 601.483523, 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-35.55349, "energy": 22.288553, "activity_lines": [ 478.890002, 485.632729, 481.484143, 483.756775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 480.0, "volume": 2315420, "typical_volume": 2126449.6, "trend": 493.18399, "fair_value": 595.918421, "relative_strength": -14.414166, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.404155, "energy": 22.723339, "activity_lines": [ 477.720001, 484.264547, 481.859866, 482.558588 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }