{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fae9363c-6b44-4370-82a3-26696c399426", "symbol": "EMET", "name": "VANECK COPPER AND GREEN METALS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.894, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.833, "architecture_energy": 27.513, "architecture_maturity": 10.711, "architecture_confidence": 81.422, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.52, "rotation_up": 20.27, "upward_expansion": 5.27, "deceleration": 50.36, "rotation_down": 49.56, "downward_expansion": 76.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.018933, 40.070951, 41.460849, 41.82047 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.5523, "trend_reference": 42.36624, "distance_from_trend": 0.027995, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.65248, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.574987, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.04121, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014023, "excess_performance": -0.111602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027995, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049535, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.574987, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030412, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213345, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014023, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.717048, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43153, "relative_activity": 0.99836, "balance": 0.717048, "dry_up": 0.73283, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076738, "annualized_volatility": 0.463755, "from_high_reference": -0.118731, "from_low_reference": 0.75072 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.36624, "fair_value_reference": 27.65248, "structural_low": 36.15, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.020826, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.020809, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.142316, "worst_return": -0.112492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002763, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.052176, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.271837, "worst_return": -0.089031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.136489, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.041093, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.276894, "worst_return": -0.154337, "sufficient": 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42.557588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.91, "volume": 29876, "typical_volume": 48974.4, "trend": 42.215573, "fair_value": 27.380688, "relative_strength": -7.829979, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.21116, "energy": 62.74482, "activity_lines": [ 38.88794, 40.736393, 41.928815, 42.217783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.1319, "volume": 44988, "typical_volume": 46726.35, "trend": 42.22089, "fair_value": 27.452212, "relative_strength": -4.601122, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.499872, "energy": 70.260928, "activity_lines": [ 38.279673, 40.040091, 41.56481, 41.95432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.8588, "volume": 8686, "typical_volume": 44629.95, "trend": 42.26489, "fair_value": 27.534214, "relative_strength": -4.295777, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.722147, "energy": 65.591272, "activity_lines": [ 38.332473, 39.583218, 41.286898, 41.737411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.5523, "volume": 43153, "typical_volume": 43223.9, "trend": 42.36624, "fair_value": 27.65248, "relative_strength": 3.04121, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.833201, "energy": 27.51321, "activity_lines": [ 40.018933, 40.070951, 41.460849, 41.82047 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }