{ "ticker": { "uuid": "faeed237-6e1e-4078-b4da-c5b2e699c9b8", "symbol": "SAUDI", "name": "Franklin FTSE Saudi Arabia UCIT", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.273, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.932, "architecture_energy": 30.547, "architecture_maturity": 2.039, "architecture_confidence": 59.862, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.29, "rotation_up": 15.96, "upward_expansion": 18.89, "deceleration": 54.93, "rotation_down": 58.19, "downward_expansion": 46.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.025334, 21.138091, 21.226358, 21.202861 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.155001, "trend_reference": 21.165334, "distance_from_trend": -0.000488, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.659326, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.023284, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.648547, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009365, "excess_performance": -0.180257, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000488, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01386, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.023284, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014133, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136485, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009365, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.649467, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2026, "relative_activity": 0.993941, "balance": 1.649467, "dry_up": 0.774033, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018472, "annualized_volatility": 0.134912, "from_high_reference": -0.050494, "from_low_reference": 0.086097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.165334, "fair_value_reference": 21.659326, "structural_low": 19.584, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021382, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013731, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 23.905001, "volume": 435, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.419233, "energy": 18.195369, "activity_lines": [ 21.341668, 21.346001, 21.320143, 21.224312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.865, "volume": 2452, "typical_volume": 2549.2, "trend": 21.061833, "fair_value": 21.68009, "relative_strength": -12.865304, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.641113, "energy": 13.090666, "activity_lines": [ 21.150334, 21.265728, 21.288096, 21.213689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.215, "volume": 506, "typical_volume": 2164.05, "trend": 21.103334, "fair_value": 21.674922, "relative_strength": -10.961576, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.731015, "energy": 17.296945, "activity_lines": [ 21.126667, 21.25, 21.285619, 21.22357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.76, "volume": 1327, "typical_volume": 2091.9, "trend": 21.132667, "fair_value": 21.664868, "relative_strength": -13.094928, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.87648, "energy": 36.804747, "activity_lines": [ 20.986, 21.152728, 21.236762, 21.20142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.155001, "volume": 2026, "typical_volume": 2038.35, "trend": 21.165334, "fair_value": 21.659326, "relative_strength": -13.648547, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.931975, "energy": 30.546917, "activity_lines": [ 21.025334, 21.138091, 21.226358, 21.202861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }