{ "ticker": { "uuid": "faf0b97c-5b63-4fdb-97dc-944c5d4932a9", "symbol": "7040", "name": "Etihad GO Telecom Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.525, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.489, "architecture_energy": 73.507, "architecture_maturity": 5.295, "architecture_confidence": 78.272, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.22, "rotation_up": 8.51, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 76.49, "downward_expansion": 92.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.653333, 87.67909, 90.31881, 90.427635 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 87.0, "trend_reference": 90.736667, "distance_from_trend": -0.041181, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 87.991154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011264, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.751841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.085173, "excess_performance": -0.053344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041181, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008559, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011264, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188668, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074101, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085173, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.93643, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000446, "relative_activity": 1.117719, "balance": 0.93643, "dry_up": 0.70309, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04328, "annualized_volatility": 0.197916, "from_high_reference": -0.234132, "from_low_reference": 0.080745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.736667, "fair_value_reference": 87.991154, "structural_low": 80.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.027344, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.023896, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.499368, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.107948, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.149703, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.502941, "worst_return": -0.117417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.086414, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.072, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.590392, "worst_return": -0.3141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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87.226492, "relative_strength": -8.770612, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.273979, "energy": 62.606232, "activity_lines": [ 87.253334, 89.697273, 91.474286, 91.174301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.199997, "volume": 724658, "typical_volume": 857926.35, "trend": 90.763334, "fair_value": 87.594514, "relative_strength": -8.87255, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.045528, "energy": 79.308852, "activity_lines": [ 85.509999, 88.246363, 90.714762, 90.67043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.0, "volume": 1000446, "typical_volume": 895078.05, "trend": 90.736667, "fair_value": 87.991154, "relative_strength": -6.751841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.489286, "energy": 73.507142, "activity_lines": [ 85.653333, 87.67909, 90.31881, 90.427635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }