{ "ticker": { "uuid": "faf0fac7-99c1-4e22-bb2e-66db2a4d95c8", "symbol": "1060", "name": "Saudi Awwal Bank", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.408, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.415, "architecture_energy": 39.821, "architecture_maturity": 22.072, "architecture_confidence": 66.502, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.78, "rotation_up": 24.67, "upward_expansion": 10.2, "deceleration": 56.25, "rotation_down": 45.33, "downward_expansion": 72.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.487441, 32.504406, 33.153024, 33.538333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.080002, "trend_reference": 33.839797, "distance_from_trend": -0.022453, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.169958, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028289, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.091173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.050296, "excess_performance": -0.018467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017319, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028289, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036398, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030912, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033967, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050296, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.277496, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14344642, "relative_activity": 1.758754, "balance": 1.277496, "dry_up": 1.101409, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030402, "annualized_volatility": 0.151497, "from_high_reference": -0.102445, "from_low_reference": 0.137104 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.839797, "fair_value_reference": 32.169958, "structural_low": 30.704459, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.011286, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.008733, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.111285, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062021, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.004001, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.178125, "worst_return": -0.109039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.078492, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.326202, "worst_return": 0.015782, "sufficient": false }, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 31.150856, "volume": 8880439, "typical_volume": 8093823.1, "trend": 33.711318, "fair_value": 32.214336, "relative_strength": -2.167345, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -58.65617, "energy": 67.638359, "activity_lines": [ 32.447619, 33.01252, 33.784569, 33.891268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.228493, "volume": 7591152, "typical_volume": 8072227.7, "trend": 33.707959, "fair_value": 32.203094, "relative_strength": -1.147596, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.486528, "energy": 74.963863, "activity_lines": [ 31.912393, 32.616412, 33.506585, 33.731086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.315376, "volume": 6437767, "typical_volume": 7772654.85, "trend": 33.738236, "fair_value": 32.1912, "relative_strength": 1.477953, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.659347, "energy": 78.781219, "activity_lines": [ 31.882895, 32.471583, 33.341951, 33.641242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.839409, "volume": 7559399, "typical_volume": 7581124.15, "trend": 33.77625, "fair_value": 32.180216, "relative_strength": 4.981447, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.211043, "energy": 71.679195, "activity_lines": [ 32.121716, 32.454481, 33.233001, 33.583253 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.080002, "volume": 14344642, "typical_volume": 8156138.25, "trend": 33.839797, "fair_value": 32.169958, "relative_strength": 3.091173, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.414763, "energy": 39.821437, "activity_lines": [ 32.487441, 32.504406, 33.153024, 33.538333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }