{ "ticker": { "uuid": "faf2a8fd-53f5-47cc-bc2f-217d6d972d02", "symbol": "IB27", "name": "iShares V PLC - iShares iBonds Dec 2027 Term \u20ac Corp UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.662, "architecture_energy": 69.745, "architecture_maturity": 30.351, "architecture_confidence": 80.866, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.55, "rotation_up": 61.22, "upward_expansion": 87.34, "deceleration": 49.07, "rotation_down": 22.07, "downward_expansion": 14.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.634333, 5.631273, 5.623338, 5.615895 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.642, "trend_reference": 5.608133, "distance_from_trend": 0.006039, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.405092, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043831, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.760816, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006781, "excess_performance": -0.046531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006039, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003058, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043831, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002176, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049776, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006781, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.834439, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84481, "relative_activity": 1.286916, "balance": 2.834439, "dry_up": 0.665215, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002031, "annualized_volatility": 0.010783, "from_high_reference": -0.001239, "from_low_reference": 0.020253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.608133, "fair_value_reference": 5.405092, "structural_low": 5.56, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.00269, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": -0.010324, "regime_survival": 0.941176, "best_return": 0.006902, "worst_return": -0.005173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005801, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01249, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.014157, "worst_return": 0.000897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.012634, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019766, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.02004, "worst_return": 0.005227, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 5.405092, "relative_strength": -5.760816, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.661644, "energy": 69.745202, "activity_lines": [ 5.634333, 5.631273, 5.623338, 5.615895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }