{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb021fa9-2ed7-4072-9fd0-9fbe63bfbe90", "symbol": "ABEC", "name": "Alphabet Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.754, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.716, "architecture_energy": 13.795, "architecture_maturity": 57.149, "architecture_confidence": 77.551, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.71, "rotation_up": 18.45, "upward_expansion": 45.1, "deceleration": 87.31, "rotation_down": 31.99, "downward_expansion": 25.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 300.800003, 303.370546, 307.918295, 300.410104 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 307.850006, "trend_reference": 291.253038, "distance_from_trend": 0.056985, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 187.70561, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.640068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.28375, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.13039, "excess_performance": 0.065751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056985, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053023, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.640068, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321281, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.072837, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.393339, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13039, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.583687, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36039, "relative_activity": 1.508353, "balance": 0.583687, "dry_up": 1.545173, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063315, "annualized_volatility": 0.32385, "from_high_reference": -0.112594, "from_low_reference": 0.822054 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 291.253038, "fair_value_reference": 187.70561, "structural_low": 237.835497, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.048227, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.033924, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.18908, "worst_return": -0.107423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.060059, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.022284, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.236059, "worst_return": -0.077282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.177365, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.063817, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.306212, "worst_return": -0.045062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 24381.4, "trend": 289.16881, "fair_value": 185.286931, "relative_strength": 4.78461, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.723004, "energy": 13.730987, "activity_lines": [ 297.823334, 304.81748, 306.682051, 298.375647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 303.3, "volume": 37528, "typical_volume": 24658.85, "trend": 290.447121, "fair_value": 186.480608, "relative_strength": 9.416527, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.717849, "energy": 15.807195, "activity_lines": [ 298.703335, 303.43518, 307.177512, 299.287337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 307.850006, "volume": 36039, "typical_volume": 23892.95, "trend": 291.253038, "fair_value": 187.70561, "relative_strength": 7.28375, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.716457, "energy": 13.795472, "activity_lines": [ 300.800003, 303.370546, 307.918295, 300.410104 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }