{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb023160-81a7-4e29-830e-ef9cddff6cca", "symbol": "300042", "name": "Netac Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.157, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.528, "architecture_energy": 39.014, "architecture_maturity": 37.198, "architecture_confidence": 41.707, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.54, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 17.84, "deceleration": 64.14, "rotation_down": 66.44, "downward_expansion": 42.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.590665, 51.997453, 55.908703, 53.629183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 47.099998, "trend_reference": 48.882491, "distance_from_trend": -0.036465, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.237982, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.557644, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.991177, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.272019, "excess_performance": 0.264619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036465, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250545, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.557644, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.698499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.169912, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.532583, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.272019, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.113863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99670340, "relative_activity": 0.907935, "balance": 1.113863, "dry_up": 0.818831, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.22439, "annualized_volatility": 1.003457, "from_high_reference": -0.38809, "from_low_reference": 1.003133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.882491, "fair_value_reference": 30.237982, "structural_low": 31.374196, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.041621, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.024623, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.267974, "worst_return": -0.190205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055814, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.059932, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.631832, "worst_return": -0.297896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.096601, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.025699, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.497553, "worst_return": -0.430565, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048203, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153132, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 58.940665, 61.912742, 59.549549, 54.589587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.84, "volume": 90479871, "typical_volume": 118204340.95, "trend": 47.733517, "fair_value": 30.154497, "relative_strength": 9.31252, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.793332, "energy": 20.532602, "activity_lines": [ 51.911999, 57.992043, 58.263317, 54.244777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.259998, "volume": 77503291, "typical_volume": 116409703.8, "trend": 48.168181, "fair_value": 30.164324, "relative_strength": 3.573803, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.094674, "energy": 39.331647, "activity_lines": [ 45.923999, 54.02109, 56.715779, 53.698098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.099998, "volume": 99670340, "typical_volume": 109776969.6, "trend": 48.882491, "fair_value": 30.237982, "relative_strength": 16.991177, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.528021, "energy": 39.014051, "activity_lines": [ 44.590665, 51.997453, 55.908703, 53.629183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }