{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb02df04-65a9-4fc0-9c9e-349908699c7a", "symbol": "IX", "name": "Orix Corp Ads", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.055, "architecture_energy": 47.084, "architecture_maturity": 63.906, "architecture_confidence": 88.105, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.95, "rotation_up": 51.73, "upward_expansion": 83.04, "deceleration": 63.58, "rotation_down": 26.96, "downward_expansion": 7.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.981333, 39.652, 38.314619, 36.758258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.09, "trend_reference": 34.983333, "distance_from_trend": 0.145974, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.736022, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.688994, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.439868, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.241176, "excess_performance": 0.115552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.145974, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12168, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.688994, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145524, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.144399, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030591, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.241176, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.516364, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 994399, "relative_activity": 0.67746, "balance": 1.516364, "dry_up": 0.6852, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059496, "annualized_volatility": 0.364761, "from_high_reference": -0.054258, "from_low_reference": 0.657296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.983333, "fair_value_reference": 23.736022, "structural_low": 29.04, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.017435, "positive_rate": 0.621622, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.001648, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.166722, "worst_return": -0.165818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.018311, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.01458, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.152965, "worst_return": -0.132599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.089891, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.015111, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.324517, "worst_return": -0.179762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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36.920857, 35.610215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.31, "volume": 833653, "typical_volume": 1611567.8, "trend": 34.306667, "fair_value": 23.433205, "relative_strength": 21.982535, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.313953, "energy": 52.313667, "activity_lines": [ 39.496667, 39.275636, 37.437333, 36.021097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.31, "volume": 1103336, "typical_volume": 1545782.15, "trend": 34.667333, "fair_value": 23.583527, "relative_strength": 19.751825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.315182, "energy": 52.243676, "activity_lines": [ 39.843333, 39.497091, 37.911143, 36.408409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.09, "volume": 994399, "typical_volume": 1467835.25, "trend": 34.983333, "fair_value": 23.736022, "relative_strength": 14.439868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.054672, "energy": 47.0844, "activity_lines": [ 39.981333, 39.652, 38.314619, 36.758258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }