{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb0b5d97-c3b1-4259-b666-3fa2c2706bae", "symbol": "ESCA", "name": "Escalade Incorporated", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.496, "architecture_energy": 71.987, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.576, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.55, "rotation_up": 72.72, "upward_expansion": 87.13, "deceleration": 46.35, "rotation_down": 11.72, "downward_expansion": 13.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.34, 19.626382, 19.119922, 18.508825 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.6, "trend_reference": 17.433696, "distance_from_trend": 0.29634, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.384027, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.571187, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 30.354674, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.593253, "excess_performance": 0.405799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.29634, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136906, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.571187, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147213, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.303547, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123241, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.593253, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.287278, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 364579, "relative_activity": 1.935234, "balance": 2.287278, "dry_up": 1.161179, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071786, "annualized_volatility": 0.351361, "from_high_reference": -0.020551, "from_low_reference": 1.01984 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.433696, "fair_value_reference": 14.384027, "structural_low": 13.614152, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.002311, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003172, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.24424, "worst_return": -0.175068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025873, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001939, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.29064, "worst_return": -0.080884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.122643, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020709, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.329166, "worst_return": 0.009606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"up", "direction": 50.826507, "energy": 32.254941, "activity_lines": [ 18.662181, 18.59553, 18.413043, 17.668227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.24, "volume": 177590, "typical_volume": 196571.8, "trend": 16.735551, "fair_value": 14.254357, "relative_strength": 17.726535, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.079035, "energy": 36.331126, "activity_lines": [ 18.855369, 18.702289, 18.539585, 17.844208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.63, "volume": 102336, "typical_volume": 194524.25, "trend": 16.91919, "fair_value": 14.290796, "relative_strength": 15.350913, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.916374, "energy": 28.784396, "activity_lines": [ 18.794575, 18.705592, 18.584384, 17.966431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.86, "volume": 230514, "typical_volume": 188745.5, "trend": 17.133695, "fair_value": 14.330545, "relative_strength": 21.484441, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.066478, "energy": 34.910975, "activity_lines": [ 19.13512, 18.927442, 18.728415, 18.15616 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.6, "volume": 364579, "typical_volume": 188390.15, "trend": 17.433696, "fair_value": 14.384027, "relative_strength": 30.354674, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.496264, "energy": 71.986596, "activity_lines": [ 20.34, 19.626382, 19.119922, 18.508825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }