{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb299ad0-2d20-40e8-ae93-dd6e5a6b24fc", "symbol": "PRQR", "name": "ProQR Therapeutics BV", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.03, "architecture_energy": 33.538, "architecture_maturity": 43.102, "architecture_confidence": 71.661, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.45, "rotation_up": 52.5, "upward_expansion": 77.83, "deceleration": 52.67, "rotation_down": 16.01, "downward_expansion": 4.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.769667, 1.736182, 1.683857, 1.667011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.875, "trend_reference": 1.6465, "distance_from_trend": 0.138779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.004647, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.064673, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.998325, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.25, "excess_performance": 0.062546, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.138779, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082389, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.064673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148064, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193668, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.679352, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4926479, "relative_activity": 1.133651, "balance": 0.679352, "dry_up": 0.976001, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159672, "annualized_volatility": 0.835249, "from_high_reference": -0.395161, "from_low_reference": 0.409774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.6465, "fair_value_reference": 2.004647, "structural_low": 1.33, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.029343, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.037838, "worst_return": -0.18593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.09888, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013526, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.736364, "worst_return": -0.148325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.464291, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.300993, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.674242, "worst_return": -0.144796, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020725, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.365976, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.957071, "worst_return": -0.262887, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.34642, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178707, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.210402, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.180258, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116379, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084071, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.209677, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.55, "volume": 807930, "typical_volume": 1755484.05, "trend": 2.203833, "fair_value": 3.697719, "relative_strength": -30.556327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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1.644237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.72, "volume": 5377269, "typical_volume": 4103276.25, "trend": 1.652, "fair_value": 2.001089, "relative_strength": -18.865011, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.486848, "energy": 19.335198, "activity_lines": [ 1.716, 1.684, 1.655381, 1.647656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.72, "volume": 3106557, "typical_volume": 4164253.0, "trend": 1.643, "fair_value": 2.002435, "relative_strength": -18.66774, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.895448, "energy": 25.465825, "activity_lines": [ 1.723333, 1.697455, 1.662, 1.652043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.875, "volume": 4926479, "typical_volume": 4345674.9, "trend": 1.6465, "fair_value": 2.004647, "relative_strength": -14.998325, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.030455, "energy": 33.538133, "activity_lines": [ 1.769667, 1.736182, 1.683857, 1.667011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }