{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb2b0e34-5cd2-41ae-b279-c5064902e7f8", "symbol": "VINYLINDIA", "name": "Vinyl Chemicals (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.121, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.045, "architecture_energy": 17.996, "architecture_maturity": 16.658, "architecture_confidence": 71.574, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.05, "rotation_up": 20.77, "upward_expansion": 48.11, "deceleration": 81.68, "rotation_down": 31.99, "downward_expansion": 23.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 243.863332, 248.314545, 250.566883, 242.308898 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 242.720001, "trend_reference": 231.70687, "distance_from_trend": 0.04753, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 313.651838, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.226148, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.25448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.155722, "excess_performance": 0.199431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04753, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012528, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.226148, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002545, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038194, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155722, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.807151, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52650, "relative_activity": 0.482191, "balance": 0.807151, "dry_up": 0.599252, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066755, "annualized_volatility": 0.507192, "from_high_reference": -0.234628, "from_low_reference": 0.545006 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 231.70687, "fair_value_reference": 313.651838, "structural_low": 157.099668, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.027114, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.000782, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.296356, "worst_return": -0.154991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.023651, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.082007, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 2.713276, "worst_return": -0.162888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053027, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.126191, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.178795, 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"typical_volume": 106820.35, "trend": 230.867403, "fair_value": 316.035599, "relative_strength": 3.054321, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.384345, "energy": 22.820026, "activity_lines": [ 250.229997, 252.393636, 250.284972, 240.853581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 241.800003, "volume": 142324, "typical_volume": 110663.45, "trend": 231.095188, "fair_value": 314.692457, "relative_strength": 0.378932, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.024593, "energy": 16.251033, "activity_lines": [ 246.386665, 249.974545, 250.512647, 241.55891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 242.720001, "volume": 52650, "typical_volume": 109189.05, "trend": 231.70687, "fair_value": 313.651838, "relative_strength": 0.25448, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.045095, "energy": 17.995608, "activity_lines": [ 243.863332, 248.314545, 250.566883, 242.308898 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }