{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb2cfd6d-8c97-4e62-9001-3d8067a4901a", "symbol": "EEMU", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI EMU Min TE UCITS ETF \u2013 EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.922, "architecture_energy": 62.201, "architecture_maturity": 65.094, "architecture_confidence": 64.939, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.54, "rotation_up": 54.01, "upward_expansion": 81.18, "deceleration": 69.81, "rotation_down": 26.94, "downward_expansion": 10.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.701, 20.612745, 20.21231, 19.831989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.135, "trend_reference": 19.4393, "distance_from_trend": 0.08723, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.081353, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314255, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.041346, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110148, "excess_performance": -0.060744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08723, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043034, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.314255, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071858, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030413, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023418, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110148, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.402637, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 160913, "relative_activity": 1.688355, "balance": 2.402637, "dry_up": 1.649741, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022034, "annualized_volatility": 0.165839, "from_high_reference": -0.004944, "from_low_reference": 0.260587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.4393, "fair_value_reference": 16.081353, "structural_low": 17.191999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.012011, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001409, "regime_survival": 0.74359, "best_return": 0.072408, "worst_return": -0.09696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.006406, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.014968, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.116642, "worst_return": -0.121097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.084864, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.020901, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.138735, "worst_return": -0.1791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026072, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040814, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051553, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151781, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.033483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.581108, "energy": 68.281436, "activity_lines": [ 20.501334, 20.358473, 19.851619, 19.554288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.475, "volume": 95570, "typical_volume": 88882.1, "trend": 19.298233, "fair_value": 15.981019, "relative_strength": -2.751642, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.561689, "energy": 57.933743, "activity_lines": [ 20.479667, 20.419055, 19.9576, 19.634886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.584999, "volume": 104769, "typical_volume": 91140.5, "trend": 19.366667, "fair_value": 16.028462, "relative_strength": -2.838068, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.807006, "energy": 51.155126, "activity_lines": [ 20.505667, 20.473582, 20.064348, 19.717903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.135, "volume": 160913, "typical_volume": 95307.55, "trend": 19.4393, "fair_value": 16.081353, "relative_strength": -3.041346, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.921633, "energy": 62.200896, "activity_lines": [ 20.701, 20.612745, 20.21231, 19.831989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }