{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb348320-521e-4488-97f0-57b90c42aefa", "symbol": "5110", "name": "Saudi Energy Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.725, "architecture_energy": 27.469, "architecture_maturity": 63.535, "architecture_confidence": 95.234, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.93, "rotation_up": 30.89, "upward_expansion": 63.77, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 27.32, "downward_expansion": 16.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.504667, 17.627273, 17.38554, 16.832732 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.610001, "trend_reference": 15.957546, "distance_from_trend": 0.103553, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.512297, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135228, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.777787, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.287189, "excess_performance": 0.319018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103553, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089791, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135228, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063789, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.177778, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001916, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.287189, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.63377, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6115278, "relative_activity": 0.77781, "balance": 1.63377, "dry_up": 0.706443, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043944, "annualized_volatility": 0.224991, "from_high_reference": -0.047078, "from_low_reference": 0.410957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.957546, "fair_value_reference": 15.512297, "structural_low": 12.48089, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"typical_volume": 7851439.55, "trend": 15.709611, "fair_value": 15.54644, "relative_strength": 20.715357, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.450291, "energy": 54.921899, "activity_lines": [ 17.845333, 17.7, 17.307943, 16.637131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 7214552, "typical_volume": 7742554.7, "trend": 15.818578, "fair_value": 15.527366, "relative_strength": 16.561486, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.594548, "energy": 35.308725, "activity_lines": [ 17.526667, 17.604545, 17.322114, 16.717157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.610001, "volume": 6115278, "typical_volume": 7862172.25, "trend": 15.957546, "fair_value": 15.512297, "relative_strength": 17.777787, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.724695, "energy": 27.469259, "activity_lines": [ 17.504667, 17.627273, 17.38554, 16.832732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }