{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb3d3648-264e-40e9-8d44-4098107be178", "symbol": "NFLX", "name": "Netflix, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.289, "architecture_energy": 76.077, "architecture_maturity": 29.691, "architecture_confidence": 92.918, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.5, "rotation_up": 18.07, "upward_expansion": 17.77, "deceleration": 40.73, "rotation_down": 62.99, "downward_expansion": 88.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.526001, 63.818182, 68.088762, 70.856559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 64.150002, "trend_reference": 72.992334, "distance_from_trend": -0.121141, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 73.028397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121575, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.703253, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.067994, "excess_performance": -0.24224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121141, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085068, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121575, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176094, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.377033, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052044, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067994, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.000055, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3043, "relative_activity": 1.236816, "balance": 1.000055, "dry_up": 2.146849, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057414, "annualized_volatility": 0.380624, "from_high_reference": -0.405468, "from_low_reference": 0.114489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.992334, "fair_value_reference": 73.028397, "structural_low": 57.560001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.043712, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003734, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.294789, "worst_return": -0.475686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081505, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.043006, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.386387, "worst_return": -0.506987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.211942, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.085085, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.379763, "worst_return": -0.316494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.120441, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008445, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115906, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.265575, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.210407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.950001, "volume": 5040, "typical_volume": 2262.85, "trend": 74.512334, "fair_value": 72.569647, "relative_strength": -41.865104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.069611, "energy": 93.348961, "activity_lines": [ 63.821334, 66.579818, 71.37081, 73.049656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.5, "volume": 8307, "typical_volume": 2331.45, "trend": 73.918667, "fair_value": 72.717051, "relative_strength": -40.314361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.110193, "energy": 88.213356, "activity_lines": [ 62.663333, 65.207091, 70.064286, 72.210151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.189999, "volume": 4738, "typical_volume": 2406.8, "trend": 73.402, "fair_value": 72.865032, "relative_strength": -38.702056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.15793, "energy": 83.429722, "activity_lines": [ 62.157333, 64.204727, 68.934, 71.453462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.150002, "volume": 3043, "typical_volume": 2460.35, "trend": 72.992334, "fair_value": 73.028397, "relative_strength": -37.703253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.288514, "energy": 76.076807, "activity_lines": [ 62.526001, 63.818182, 68.088762, 70.856559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }