{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb3d6117-93bb-4f8a-9d7f-eddc043d64c2", "symbol": "RAVE", "name": "Rave Restaurant Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.456, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.084, "architecture_energy": 17.67, "architecture_maturity": 35.959, "architecture_confidence": 75.326, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.54, "rotation_up": 25.41, "upward_expansion": 58.87, "deceleration": 89.53, "rotation_down": 25.98, "downward_expansion": 13.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.172, 3.238364, 3.117762, 3.024086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.14, "trend_reference": 2.980667, "distance_from_trend": 0.053456, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.54447, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234049, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.177238, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033846, "excess_performance": -0.2213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053456, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024989, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234049, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08799, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11065, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.035749, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143211, "relative_activity": 0.427969, "balance": 1.035749, "dry_up": 0.384168, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122609, "annualized_volatility": 0.433736, "from_high_reference": -0.162667, "from_low_reference": 0.395556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.980667, "fair_value_reference": 2.54447, "structural_low": 2.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.141934, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.144593, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.368421, "worst_return": -0.137072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.200488, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.138126, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.394737, "worst_return": -0.107407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.061422, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.063669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.088561, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055351, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059441, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003155, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031546, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118644, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.220884, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.184669, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.12, "volume": 156356, "typical_volume": 226034.95, "trend": 1.732497, "fair_value": 1.296471, "relative_strength": 12.026257, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.728919, "energy": 56.66624, "activity_lines": [ 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.3, "volume": 83703, "typical_volume": 335962.2, "trend": 2.989, "fair_value": 2.526008, "relative_strength": -1.478509, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.697166, "energy": 42.533584, "activity_lines": [ 3.339333, 3.272545, 3.051048, 2.994086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.13, "volume": 132418, "typical_volume": 336805.05, "trend": 2.983667, "fair_value": 2.531842, "relative_strength": -4.773587, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.534163, "energy": 28.427924, "activity_lines": [ 3.264, 3.267091, 3.07419, 3.003183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.15, "volume": 154884, "typical_volume": 335498.35, "trend": 2.982333, "fair_value": 2.538316, "relative_strength": -4.471726, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.300225, "energy": 21.114199, "activity_lines": [ 3.210667, 3.256, 3.097762, 3.013914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.14, "volume": 143211, "typical_volume": 334629.4, "trend": 2.980667, "fair_value": 2.54447, "relative_strength": -9.177238, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.084344, "energy": 17.670086, "activity_lines": [ 3.172, 3.238364, 3.117762, 3.024086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }