{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb490f04-e294-4bc9-bcbc-4711c93672a2", "symbol": "HGBL", "name": "Heritage Global Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.511, "architecture_energy": 73.866, "architecture_maturity": 33.939, "architecture_confidence": 86.472, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.95, "rotation_up": 11.88, "upward_expansion": 15.36, "deceleration": 37.5, "rotation_down": 74.35, "downward_expansion": 91.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.15, 1.187273, 1.226476, 1.250796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.06, "trend_reference": 1.283667, "distance_from_trend": -0.17424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.026054, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.476815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.664023, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.203008, "excess_performance": -0.390461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.17424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019103, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.476815, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054901, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.33664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011086, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203008, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.204897, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2270123, "relative_activity": 4.925256, "balance": 0.204897, "dry_up": 1.818695, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082094, "annualized_volatility": 0.312596, "from_high_reference": -0.477833, "from_low_reference": 0.049505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.283667, "fair_value_reference": 2.026054, "structural_low": 1.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.045802, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": -0.052487, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.196581, "worst_return": -0.147368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.058457, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.11617, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.374233, "worst_return": -0.365756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.166118, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.27989, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.239521, "worst_return": -0.323887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.238979, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.34831, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.095808, "worst_return": -0.456026, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.23506, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.180233, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013564, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00463, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.267016, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164384, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171875, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.25, "volume": 1567979, "typical_volume": 928801.75, "trend": 3.175167, "fair_value": 2.285997, "relative_strength": 5.582909, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.680477, "energy": 35.752423, "activity_lines": [ 1.233333, 1.237636, 1.26619, 1.280581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.2, "volume": 286365, "typical_volume": 383280.55, "trend": 1.294, "fair_value": 2.05599, "relative_strength": -23.489608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.681481, "energy": 39.142852, "activity_lines": [ 1.222, 1.231636, 1.258429, 1.274387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.16, "volume": 453953, "typical_volume": 382296.25, "trend": 1.291667, "fair_value": 2.039708, "relative_strength": -25.031419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.202331, "energy": 49.927334, "activity_lines": [ 1.200667, 1.218182, 1.24719, 1.265742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.06, "volume": 2270123, "typical_volume": 460914.75, "trend": 1.283667, "fair_value": 2.026054, "relative_strength": -33.664023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.510632, "energy": 73.865741, "activity_lines": [ 1.15, 1.187273, 1.226476, 1.250796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }