{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb4c7429-82f7-4245-b573-52de9c9f3038", "symbol": "BERMIB", "name": "Amundi FTSE MIB Daily (-1x) Inverse UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.966, "architecture_energy": 66.231, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.756, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 29.16, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.36, "rotation_down": 55.3, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.093867, 4.112036, 4.216524, 4.355889 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.008, "trend_reference": 4.525417, "distance_from_trend": -0.114336, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.083551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.341174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.646547, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165174, "excess_performance": -0.336066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114336, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06021, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.341174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034018, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046322, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165174, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.71799, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 581861, "relative_activity": 0.603354, "balance": 0.71799, "dry_up": 0.696141, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029307, "annualized_volatility": 0.17948, "from_high_reference": -0.250421, "from_low_reference": 0.005898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.525417, "fair_value_reference": 6.083551, "structural_low": 3.9845, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.013635, "positive_rate": 0.367347, "directional_follow_through": 0.632653, "median_excess_return": -0.021939, "regime_survival": 0.918367, "best_return": 0.088105, "worst_return": -0.123099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.056258, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.106069, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.074804, "worst_return": -0.098549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.101545, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.191275, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.164865, "worst_return": -0.155481, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.611554, "energy": 76.404606, "activity_lines": [ 4.1222, 4.164591, 4.317524, 4.449016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.1525, "volume": 930953, "typical_volume": 1040402.95, "trend": 4.576767, "fair_value": 6.133096, "relative_strength": -24.878461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.558016, "energy": 62.794418, "activity_lines": [ 4.133367, 4.152445, 4.285238, 4.419971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.128, "volume": 449633, "typical_volume": 986430.3, "trend": 4.5525, "fair_value": 6.109051, "relative_strength": -25.0596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.732755, "energy": 58.903011, "activity_lines": [ 4.131367, 4.141218, 4.254605, 4.391018 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.008, "volume": 581861, "typical_volume": 964378.0, "trend": 4.525417, "fair_value": 6.083551, "relative_strength": -28.646547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.966437, "energy": 66.231391, "activity_lines": [ 4.093867, 4.112036, 4.216524, 4.355889 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }