{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb5c10dc-14c9-4435-bcaf-8ac1d46d8ecf", "symbol": "CTRN", "name": "Citi Trends Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.076, "architecture_energy": 81.164, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.791, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.1, "rotation_up": 79.06, "upward_expansion": 93.26, "deceleration": 42.64, "rotation_down": 10.2, "downward_expansion": 17.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.002, 63.005091, 56.688952, 53.510688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 72.69, "trend_reference": 50.016667, "distance_from_trend": 0.453316, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.892756, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.352979, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 42.576605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.620736, "excess_performance": 0.433282, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.453316, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123305, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.352979, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.687638, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.425766, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.42267, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.620736, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.183461, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 491199, "relative_activity": 0.714546, "balance": 1.183461, "dry_up": 0.932706, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113072, "annualized_volatility": 0.528498, "from_high_reference": -0.009538, "from_low_reference": 1.489384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.016667, "fair_value_reference": 30.892756, "structural_low": 36.05, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.017922, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.019187, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.264377, "worst_return": -0.210327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.02809, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.055868, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.311524, "worst_return": -0.39727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067028, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.090417, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.471745, "worst_return": -0.419795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "up", "direction": 60.95228, "energy": 69.491158, "activity_lines": [ 57.269333, 53.314909, 50.190905, 48.708602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 64.21, "volume": 707843, "typical_volume": 671765.35, "trend": 47.611667, "fair_value": 29.986538, "relative_strength": 35.713507, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.618455, "energy": 73.01428, "activity_lines": [ 59.778, 55.849273, 51.712476, 49.827441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.92, "volume": 668972, "typical_volume": 686954.2, "trend": 48.37, "fair_value": 30.268846, "relative_strength": 33.678075, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.335236, "energy": 64.232932, "activity_lines": [ 60.952, 57.821818, 53.031048, 50.815075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.67, "volume": 696659, "typical_volume": 706843.75, "trend": 49.208, "fair_value": 30.56141, "relative_strength": 39.152011, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.037587, "energy": 71.554232, "activity_lines": [ 63.225333, 60.084909, 54.629095, 51.99572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.69, "volume": 491199, "typical_volume": 687427.95, "trend": 50.016667, "fair_value": 30.892756, "relative_strength": 42.576605, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.075628, "energy": 81.164473, "activity_lines": [ 67.002, 63.005091, 56.688952, 53.510688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }