{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb756d00-f054-4e1b-9abe-70c0aada6c59", "symbol": "RBOT", "name": "iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.007, "architecture_energy": 32.803, "architecture_maturity": 74.308, "architecture_confidence": 91.772, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.66, "rotation_up": 33.89, "upward_expansion": 59.43, "deceleration": 88.2, "rotation_down": 27.56, "downward_expansion": 20.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.542933, 20.629072, 20.354309, 19.5522 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.684999, "trend_reference": 18.592133, "distance_from_trend": 0.166353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.621603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.48308, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.118297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.311381, "excess_performance": 0.228498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.166353, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087993, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.48308, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018312, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.121183, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102956, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.311381, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.960126, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 138907, "relative_activity": 0.980694, "balance": 0.960126, "dry_up": 0.995028, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046984, "annualized_volatility": 0.282651, "from_high_reference": -0.004133, "from_low_reference": 0.472565 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.592133, "fair_value_reference": 14.621603, "structural_low": 14.726, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020414, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.0072, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.086558, "worst_return": -0.115277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05313, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.024509, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.232303, "worst_return": -0.183398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.082343, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.007193, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.25215, "worst_return": -0.192712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.021027, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.053299, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287973, "worst_return": -0.391942, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00962, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03456, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075931, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088828, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088872, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14199, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.089918, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08235, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116165, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034176, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034073, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097308, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.94, "volume": 32417, "typical_volume": 63212.3, "trend": 11.1582, "fair_value": 11.387795, "relative_strength": 7.475358, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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19.864795, 19.027585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.483999, "volume": 162795, "typical_volume": 137709.9, "trend": 18.1885, "fair_value": 14.450096, "relative_strength": 2.753261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.58588, "energy": 39.355395, "activity_lines": [ 20.511333, 20.675454, 19.9336, 19.118671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.761999, "volume": 94437, "typical_volume": 139544.75, "trend": 18.3055, "fair_value": 14.49966, "relative_strength": 4.214741, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.219757, "energy": 28.568496, "activity_lines": [ 20.159399, 20.51529, 20.016824, 19.220187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.200001, "volume": 167610, "typical_volume": 138922.3, "trend": 18.4333, "fair_value": 14.554494, "relative_strength": 6.211593, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.602062, "energy": 26.279339, "activity_lines": [ 20.083667, 20.434363, 20.125486, 19.342413 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.684999, "volume": 138907, "typical_volume": 141641.55, "trend": 18.592133, "fair_value": 14.621603, "relative_strength": 12.118297, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.006823, "energy": 32.802547, "activity_lines": [ 20.542933, 20.629072, 20.354309, 19.5522 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }