{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb77f29f-f8a3-4588-8bed-dbd757d9bcc3", "symbol": "QS5L", "name": "WisdomTree NASDAQ 100 5x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.681, "architecture_energy": 20.801, "architecture_maturity": 80.131, "architecture_confidence": 71.272, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.23, "rotation_up": 15.09, "upward_expansion": 41.79, "deceleration": 87.76, "rotation_down": 45.02, "downward_expansion": 35.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.556333, 46.996727, 49.067338, 45.074604 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.744999, "trend_reference": 40.1647, "distance_from_trend": 0.213628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.036253, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.570583, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.70857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.715467, "excess_performance": 0.544575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.213628, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165482, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.570583, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313601, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.147086, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.453867, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.715467, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.465405, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44576, "relative_activity": 0.622568, "balance": 2.465405, "dry_up": 0.586702, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187341, "annualized_volatility": 0.98676, "from_high_reference": -0.26919, "from_low_reference": 1.626347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.1647, "fair_value_reference": 31.036253, "structural_low": 18.559999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.080803, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.101767, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.080803, "worst_return": -0.080803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14445, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017164, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.543268, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.393748, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106788, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080803, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-07", "close": 26.995001, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-14", "close": 31.629999, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-21", "close": 33.674999, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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"fair_value": 30.822526, "relative_strength": 0.267676, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.567367, "energy": 21.079429, "activity_lines": [ 45.912, 50.551909, 49.296586, 44.637082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.264999, "volume": 59723, "typical_volume": 71818.55, "trend": 39.7062, "fair_value": 30.879539, "relative_strength": -9.181472, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.277631, "energy": 24.045734, "activity_lines": [ 42.361333, 47.539091, 48.663629, 44.491456 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.744999, "volume": 44576, "typical_volume": 71600.25, "trend": 40.1647, "fair_value": 31.036253, "relative_strength": 14.70857, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.680707, "energy": 20.801469, "activity_lines": [ 43.556333, 46.996727, 49.067338, 45.074604 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }