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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.688, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.654, "architecture_energy": 22.122, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.347, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.29, "rotation_up": 24.04, "upward_expansion": 3.89, "deceleration": 52.14, "rotation_down": 37.95, "downward_expansion": 70.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.183333, 15.200909, 15.249524, 15.420753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.5, "trend_reference": 15.831667, "distance_from_trend": -0.02095, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.678969, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.539772, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.966394, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.114286, "excess_performance": -0.555658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02095, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07191, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.539772, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044576, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.409664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088471, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544098, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28611, "relative_activity": 0.420516, "balance": 0.544098, "dry_up": 0.534328, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053598, "annualized_volatility": 0.218183, "from_high_reference": -0.354167, "from_low_reference": 0.107143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.831667, "fair_value_reference": 33.678969, 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"activity_lines": [ 15.33, 15.258182, 15.367143, 15.670968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.25, "volume": 35765, "typical_volume": 67580.0, "trend": 16.145, "fair_value": 34.46956, "relative_strength": -42.755991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.778434, "energy": 15.963313, "activity_lines": [ 15.346667, 15.262727, 15.344762, 15.605806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.5, "volume": 73740, "typical_volume": 69233.45, "trend": 16.008333, "fair_value": 34.17924, "relative_strength": -43.709055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.828428, "energy": 30.034651, "activity_lines": [ 15.083333, 15.135455, 15.254524, 15.499677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.2, "volume": 7302, "typical_volume": 67502.25, "trend": 15.915, "fair_value": 33.924022, "relative_strength": -41.289787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.067331, "energy": 25.636517, "activity_lines": [ 15.08, 15.144545, 15.237143, 15.447527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.5, "volume": 28611, "typical_volume": 68037.8, "trend": 15.831667, "fair_value": 33.678969, "relative_strength": -40.966394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.653634, "energy": 22.122313, "activity_lines": [ 15.183333, 15.200909, 15.249524, 15.420753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }