{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb7c9f7f-a6f8-4b57-97ee-a47dd2727f2b", "symbol": "00972", "name": "Nomura Japan Value-creation Momentum Dividend ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.022, "architecture_energy": 95.839, "architecture_maturity": 14.91, "architecture_confidence": 59.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.21, "rotation_up": 86.29, "upward_expansion": 97.66, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 8.09, "downward_expansion": 21.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.161333, 20.481262, 19.817433, 19.597016 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.959999, "trend_reference": 19.324691, "distance_from_trend": 0.13637, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.791083, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307837, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.367406, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.18248, "excess_performance": -0.201244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.13637, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059698, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.307837, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186246, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1197, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.18248, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.513953, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1523671, "relative_activity": 1.704104, "balance": 2.513953, "dry_up": 0.777982, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029648, "annualized_volatility": 0.18277, "from_high_reference": -0.006335, "from_low_reference": 0.523925 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.324691, "fair_value_reference": 16.791083, "structural_low": 18.008074, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.1, "volume": 44054, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.690001, "volume": 236723, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.34, "volume": 977987, "typical_volume": 952498.45, "trend": 19.184458, "fair_value": 16.726471, "relative_strength": -12.054424, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.632067, "energy": 93.045919, "activity_lines": [ 20.595334, 20.076548, 19.560099, 19.417949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.959999, "volume": 1523671, "typical_volume": 894118.8, "trend": 19.324691, "fair_value": 16.791083, "relative_strength": -11.367406, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.022427, "energy": 95.838757, "activity_lines": [ 21.161333, 20.481262, 19.817433, 19.597016 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }