{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fb7d3d0c-783d-4fef-b1b0-4b56eb10865f", "symbol": "NFG", "name": "Next 15 Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 56.049, "architecture_energy": 67.227, "architecture_maturity": 16.547, "architecture_confidence": 73.541, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.12, "rotation_up": 72.94, "upward_expansion": 60.62, "deceleration": 24.07, "rotation_down": 16.43, "downward_expansion": 21.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 298.533333, 281.712773, 272.491218, 270.099107 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 327.0, "trend_reference": 276.686429, "distance_from_trend": 0.181843, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 491.410663, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.334569, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.57381, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.163701, "excess_performance": 0.112466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.181843, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04782, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.334569, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153894, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025738, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164316, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.163701, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 31.766201, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2896394, "relative_activity": 1.889716, "balance": 31.766201, "dry_up": 1.576719, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077676, "annualized_volatility": 0.41094, "from_high_reference": -0.255973, "from_low_reference": 0.506912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 276.686429, "fair_value_reference": 491.410663, "structural_low": 217.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061225, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021401, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.074766, "worst_return": -0.084112, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.089119, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.048376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.248331, "worst_return": -0.070094, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.039052, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025712, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.372496, "worst_return": -0.294393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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264.052473, 262.562035, 259.944926, 265.672824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 284.5, "volume": 1543743, "typical_volume": 1435062.5, "trend": 278.819763, "fair_value": 494.881801, "relative_strength": -9.548997, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.404423, "energy": 12.657394, "activity_lines": [ 272.33644, 265.893091, 262.537341, 265.981227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 293.5, "volume": 1863405, "typical_volume": 1446248.2, "trend": 277.853096, "fair_value": 492.984419, "relative_strength": -7.609032, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.837847, "energy": 28.000874, "activity_lines": [ 281.5, 270.803959, 265.977374, 266.928339 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 327.0, "volume": 2896394, "typical_volume": 1532713.7, "trend": 276.686429, "fair_value": 491.410663, "relative_strength": 2.57381, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.049006, "energy": 67.226807, "activity_lines": [ 298.533333, 281.712773, 272.491218, 270.099107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }